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I said we keep going until
A/ it's beyond expectation that 100:1 odds will be broken with a rudimentary number of trials
B/ we break 100:1 or higher
How do you conclude that
C/ NO THE EXPECTED AVERAGE IS NOT 1 PER 3 RIGHT
D/ ADAM DOESN'T UNDERSTAND THAT MORE THAN 1 BATCH IS NEEDED
If you constantly refuse to acknowledge that 1 out of 3 right is expected with or without replacement, and constantly (OVER 10 TIMES NOW) say I am expecting to WIN with 1 batch and less than 6:1 ODDS to prove it, I don't know what your problem is.
Time is running out.
We can TRY 1 single batch, 3 or 4 words all in one day, starting today.
Just a 1 batch test, I can't remember if we covered this or not since the BONE TAPE mixup.
If you agree to test 3 or 4 words today, then we have something to discuss.
It's 1am GMT, it's midnight here in 13 hours, so we don't have much time.
Your insistence on exact odds, exact number of trials, exact pass mark, is superfluous.
I just want to see if it WORKS!
On this note, I suggest we define a scope.
Forget anything about publishing, or applying to comps.
What would it take to convince SCEPCOP to take a more serious look?
Y Passmark per batch?
What does anyone here consider a good benchmark to set as goal?
What would YOU like to see that is OBJECTIVE or SUBJECTIVE that defies current science?
Here is a snippet to try and clarify the scope of my claims.
So, what would it take to reasonably convince YOU?
If you can't state your scope of investigation, then you have no challenge!
Note it's taken LONGER than 4 days arguing than the same time we could have done 1 batch, 1 word per day!
Why do skeptics insist on NOT doing a demo run? Bizarre, Randi's idiotic contract to blame for stalling frontier science...
Well thanks anyway Arouet, if I continue to apply with the challnege I can use our demo run with the BONES and TAPE as an example test.
"It is proper for you to doubt ... do not go upon report ... do not go upon tradition ... do not go upon hear-say." ~ Buddha
G. Adam, I've told you my conditions for continuing. I want you to flesh out a proper protocol. You want to interpret it as me bailing, that's fine. But until you understand your own protocol, there really is no point in continuing.
what do you mean by protocol?
I've given WORD BY WORD stepwise instructions to do a 3 word batch.
If you want a contractual meta-protocol to turn it into a bet you have to state your odds.
Just forget it, this is a kindy level test that's taken 3 months because you refuse all my suggestions.
You've set out the procedure, but your scoring is all off. Fix that, and I may play with you again. Otherwise you're just wasting my time.
All we have to do is run 1000 simulations say of 10 batches say and it will tell you the highest score.
HIGHEST SCORE FROM 1000 SIMS = 21
Now we can work out the odds by tallying the total number of hits, even with no replacement.
To keep it simple you should run the sim 10 times and take the middle score.
First, I don't understand that.
Secondly, do you understand my post above about how to look at the odds in an ordering protocol as opposed to a guess the right word protocol? Do you recognize the difference in how one should calculate the odds between the two scenarios?
did you even click on the link?
We simulate 1,000,000 tests of 10 batches of 3 words ok? [example odds calculation]
Using a random guess ACB, BAC etc.
Then that will tell us what range the high score should be.
i.e. the 1 in million test score is the score to beat to beat Million to one odds.
We can calculate the odds using simulations.
And yes it does the IN ORDER test.
For example, say you wanted to break 1000:1 ODDS with 10 batches of 3 words (guessed in order)
The expected averate from 10 Batches is 10 words right out of 30.
The BEST score from 1000 simulations is 22 words right out of 30.
So the pass mark is 23 word guessed right from 10 batches to beat 1000:1 ODDS!
Get the example calcs?
BTW, if the idea of 3 weeks posting the same WORD X CLUE...
sounds boring my paycheck is $3600 this week, I can pay you $20 per post.
BUT... you would forfeit your cut of the $1,000,000 once you turn pro!
We could try doing a batch of 3 in one day since it seemed to work bar the past midnight Word.
But it's only 2X quicker.
W1 W2 W3
Just take our time I reckon! One post a day when I say GO!
Random word list for possible pre-posted options-list protocol
Might speed things up if we can avoid the options phase and I make my guess(es) off the bat from this list of 25 words.
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