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I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Discussions about Psychics and Psychic Phenomena, Extra Sensory Perception, Telepathy, Psi, Clairvoyancy, 6th Sense, Psychokinesis, etc.

Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby Arouet » 19 Feb 2011, 10:46

G. Adams order:
1. THESIS
2. FACILITY
3. MOTORWAY
4. RATTLE


Order I sent to derrida and ninja:


1. motorway
2. facility
3. rattle
4. thesis


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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby Arouet » 19 Feb 2011, 11:18

Ok, trial number 2:

I've pm'd 4 words to Ninja and derrida chosen by a random word chooser. Here are the 4 words ordered by random.org.

1. Ribbon
2. Wrath
3. House
4. Promotion



Here are the 4 sets of numbers, also chosen by random.org:

1. 139/29
2. 321/1
3. 66/29
4. 153/6
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby G. ADAM » 19 Feb 2011, 12:53

OK I've done enough of that protocol.

You made 3 changes to MY protocol, I think that altered the experiment.

1/ shuffling before the channeling phase
2/ using 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ instead of A/ B/ C/ D/
3/ using the terms "page" and "line"

If you want to use my stated format for STEP 1 then start over, you must shuffle AFTER all the channels have been read.

I don't want to see the words before I give my answers.
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby G. ADAM » 19 Feb 2011, 13:49

The stats of guessing the order of 4 words.

There are 4! or 4X3X2X1 = 24 ways to order the words

1234 - 4 right
1243 - 2 right
1324 - 2 right
1342 - 1 right
1423 - 1 right
1432 - 2 right
2134 - 2 right
2143 - 0 right
2314 - 1 right
2341 - 0 right
2413 - 0 right
2431 - 1 right
3124 - 1 right
3142 - 0 right
3214 - 2 right
3241 - 1 right
3412 - 0 right
3421 - 0 right
4123 - 0 right
4132 - 1 right
4213 - 1 right
4231 - 2 right
4312 - 0 right
4321 - 0 right

TOTALS
0 right = 9
1 right = 8
2 right = 6
3 right = 0
4 right = 1

Average is (8 + 12 + 4) / 24 = 1

2+ right = 7/24 or 3.4:1 ODDS (less than 1 chance in 3)
4 right = 24:1 ODDS (1 chance in 24)

Let's make the PASS CLAIM
AVERAGE SCORE OVER MANY TESTS >= 2/4.

So I will try to get ON AVERAGE, 2 right every test repeatable.
Now I have just have to work out how many trials to break 1000:1.
It will be roughly 3_/1000 or 10 trials.

Sound about right? 10 trials and I average 2 right every test to pass 1000:1.
I'll get the exact number of trials later.
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby G. ADAM » 19 Feb 2011, 14:04

Here is a simple approximate method using a binomial calculator.

Image


The last row 0.0005 means you would defeat 2000:1 ODDS
if you guessed 20/40 words from 4 options. (P=0.25 per guess)

This treats each guess independantly, the 40 words = the 10 tests of 4 words.

So 2 approximate stats methods both give 10 trials required to defeat 1000:1.
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby Arouet » 19 Feb 2011, 20:56

G. ADAM wrote:OK I've done enough of that protocol.

You made 3 changes to MY protocol, I think that altered the experiment.

1/ shuffling before the channeling phase
2/ using 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ instead of A/ B/ C/ D/
3/ using the terms "page" and "line"

If you want to use my stated format for STEP 1 then start over, you must shuffle AFTER all the channels have been read.

I don't want to see the words before I give my answers.


Ok, fair enough. I'll have a look at your stat posts but I probably won't be able to really look at it closely until tonight. I thought I was following the protoccol but looking at it now I realise that I did, indeed, change it. I wish this website allowed changing the number of posts viewed per page to 50 or 100, ninja, are you able to look into that? or talk to Scepcop about it?

I won't be able to get to looking at the stat stuff in any detail right away, but in the meantime, I'll continue to do some trials while we figure that out, and then we can either decide to start from scratch, or include these ones in the final stats.
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby Arouet » 19 Feb 2011, 21:14

Ok, I've pm'd 4 new words to derrida and ninja. Here are the 4 page and line numbers

Word 1
page 149 line 23

Word 2
page 138 line 21

Word 3
page 147 line 17

Word 4
page 282 line 21
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby NinjaPuppy » 19 Feb 2011, 21:30

Arouet wrote:I wish this website allowed changing the number of posts viewed per page to 50 or 100, ninja, are you able to look into that? or talk to Scepcop about it?

I looked around my moderator control panel and that sort of function is not on my dance card.
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby G. ADAM » 19 Feb 2011, 23:16

Arouet wrote:Ok, I've pm'd 4 new words to derrida and ninja. Here are the 4 page and line numbers


Word 1
page 149 line 23
((the vertiginous speed with which the files checked by the hacker))


Word 2
page 138 line 21
((gossip magazine))


Word 3
page 147 line 17
((A moving love story, she said looking up at Quart, and like all))


Word 4
page 282 line 21
((the police were fine.))


OK, now briefly check each word against it's channel!

THEN shuffle and post the 4 words, clearly indicating it's an option list.
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby Arouet » 19 Feb 2011, 23:25

Ok, I checked the words against the channels. I then fed the words into random.org to produce the following list:

Arrow
Leap
Gleaning
Lawn
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby G. ADAM » 20 Feb 2011, 00:40

Word 1
page 149 line 23
((the vertiginous speed with which the files checked by the hacker))
ARROW

Word 2
page 138 line 21
((gossip magazine))
GLEANING

Word 3
page 147 line 17
((A moving love story, she said looking up at Quart, and like all))
LEAP

Word 4
page 282 line 21
((the police were fine.))
LAWN


A lot more subtle and harder to pick than the last test, but see if I got the order right with the new protocol
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby G. ADAM » 20 Feb 2011, 00:59

Arouet wrote:I won't be able to get to looking at the stat stuff in any detail right away, but in the meantime, I'll continue to do some trials while we figure that out, and then we can either decide to start from scratch, or include these ones in the final stats.


Better to start from scratch as you would have to include all the trials including the early misses. You can't start a trial run then begin the test and include the 1st result at a pass.

Oh and you forgot A/ B/ C/ D/ again

TEDDY
BEAR
PJS
PILLOW

A/ TEDDY
B/ BEAR
C/ PJS
D/ PILLOW

tells the channel that is NOT the order to answer them (retroactively).
Seems to make a difference.
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby Arouet » 20 Feb 2011, 01:13

Trial 1

G.Adam's order:

1. Arrow
2. Gleaning
3. Leap
4. Lawn

Original order:

1. Lawn
2. Leap
3. Arrow
4. Gleaning

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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby Arouet » 20 Feb 2011, 03:48

Ok, I've pm'd 4 new words to derrida and ninja. Here are the 4 page and line numbers

Trial 2:

Word 1
page 232 line 7

Word 2
page 59 line 20

Word 3
page 182 line 14

Word 4
page 155 line 12
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby G. ADAM » 20 Feb 2011, 07:15

Arouet wrote:Ok, I've pm'd 4 new words to derrida and ninja. Here are the 4 page and line numbers

Trial 2:




Word 1
page 232 line 7
((chatting by the Valdes Leal. He excused himself and moved closer))


Word 2
page 59 line 20
((He's pretty, said Galvira bitterly. He can always turn to soap operas))


Word 3
page 182 line 14
((What does that banker, Octavio Machuca have to say about all this))


Word 4
page 155 line 12
(Quart followed the movement of Father Ferro's lips as he whispered the words))
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