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I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Discussions about Psychics and Psychic Phenomena, Extra Sensory Perception, Telepathy, Psi, Clairvoyancy, 6th Sense, Psychokinesis, etc.

Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby Arouet » 16 Feb 2011, 19:05

G. ADAM wrote:I thought you all agreed the "eyes with water" quote was APT? (KLEENEX)

Now you are saying I've done nothing at all?

Smell an animal's fear matches URINE doesn't it? *lets not go into it!*


Urine is wrong. The word was "shingle"

And G.Adam, no offence, but I don't think you're doing anything at all. I think you suffer from what's called confirmation bias. You do a lot of these types of things, you get some "hits" and that keeps you going, and you forget about the misses. Sure the kleenex one was close - but even with that one you were focussing in on Pipe not the watery eyes, and the watery eyes only hits because sometimes people use a kleenex when they are crying. But when you have been wrong here, you haven't even been close. I'm not trying to rag on you here, but that's why I asked you about your process. What happens once you read the line in the book? Are you just trying to come up with things related to that? Are you getting a mental image in your mind? Are you getting a feeling? What are you basing this on other than just trying to come up with words that might tangentially relate to a random line in a book?

Was that the last guess you wanted to do before coming up with a protocol? Or did you want to do more?
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby G. ADAM » 16 Feb 2011, 21:04

Well in my mind I got 1 50:1 and 2 3:1s.

i.e. I could guess all 3 from 3 options.

With 50 random words, imagine a scoring quiz section like so:

CHANNEL : smoking a pipe until his eyes watered.

A/ smack
B/ chisel
C/ house
D/ kleenex
E/ arrest
F/ soon
G/ picture
H/ airconditioner
...
Z/ shampoo

It's easy to see the word is KLEENEX in an OBJECTIVE test format.

The other 2 were hard to spot:
POND - CHANNEL=went to a lot of effort to illustrate *you pondering the word*
FOUNTAIN - CHANNEL=smell the fear of animals *wet yourself*

So.... ONTO THE OBJECTIVE PROTOCOL

Doesn't matter how many times I explain fountain of wee causing one to smell the fear of animals! :)
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby G. ADAM » 16 Feb 2011, 21:12

You're not a female are you Arouet?

THE PROTOCOL - QUICK VERSION - V 1.0

STEP 1
Tester thinks of 4 words and PMs the words to some regular SCEPCOP members
then posts like so

------ SAMPLE POST -----

Word 1
page 123 line 22

Word 2
page 100 line 10

Word 3
page 44 line 1

Word 4
page 200 line 20

---- END SAMPLE POST ----

STEP 2
G. ADAM replies with 4 channels

STEP 3
TESTER posts 4 words in random order

STEP 4
G. ADAM replies with 4 words in the order asked in STEP 1

STEP 5
Score - above averge = pass! Below average = fail (for this protocol)
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby Arouet » 16 Feb 2011, 21:24

G.Adam, you really need to take a step back and look at what you are doing here. Try and look at it objectively. After the fact, you can do all sorts of manipulations to try and square the circle - rhymes, puns, vague associations. When dealing with simple words it is not hard to take many phrases and grab SOMETHING from it that vaguely matches up with the word - or some aspect of the word.

You really need to read up on confirmation bias as well. Seriously, you need to read up on it and ask yourself whether it resembles what you are doing here. Try to look at yourself from the perspective of someone else. Play devil's advocate with yourself and argue for how if it was confirmation bias, would it look differently from what you are doing.
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby Arouet » 16 Feb 2011, 21:32

G. ADAM wrote:You're not a female are you Arouet?

THE PROTOCOL - QUICK VERSION - V 1.0

STEP 1
Tester thinks of 4 words and PMs the words to some regular SCEPCOP members
then posts like so

------ SAMPLE POST -----

Word 1
page 123 line 22

Word 2
page 100 line 10

Word 3
page 44 line 1

Word 4
page 200 line 20

---- END SAMPLE POST ----

STEP 2
G. ADAM replies with 4 channels

STEP 3
TESTER posts 4 words in random order

STEP 4
G. ADAM replies with 4 words in the order asked in STEP 1

STEP 5
Score - above averge = pass! Below average = fail (for this protocol)


What does above average mean?

WIth 4 objects there are 24 ways to order them. We post one wrong order (although some of them may be right). Is it only a hit if you get all 4 in the right order?
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby derrida » 16 Feb 2011, 23:48

Arouet wrote:G.Adam, you really need to take a step back and look at what you are doing here. Try and look at it objectively. After the fact, you can do all sorts of manipulations to try and square the circle - rhymes, puns, vague associations. When dealing with simple words it is not hard to take many phrases and grab SOMETHING from it that vaguely matches up with the word - or some aspect of the word.

You really need to read up on confirmation bias as well. Seriously, you need to read up on it and ask yourself whether it resembles what you are doing here. Try to look at yourself from the perspective of someone else. Play devil's advocate with yourself and argue for how if it was confirmation bias, would it look differently from what you are doing.


i dont think he is hearing you..
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby G. ADAM » 17 Feb 2011, 02:50

If you assume paranormal doesn't exist then you are applying your own theories to the data too.

You are all saying "you get the occasional hit".

I showed you exactly how WATERY EYES and KLEENEX was good enough to spot from 50 words!

ARE YOU LISTENING? That's 50:1 ODDS BROKEN ON A FORMAL PARANORMAL TEST (on one of the trials).

Even with two total misses that's a good pass for only 3 trials.

This is NOT my first psychic channel, I've done 20,000 over 10 years.

I wouldn't try to fit POND and FOUNTAIN if it was my very first time.

From your perspective I shouldn't have bothered rating the channels at all.

Skeptics have no problem FAILING and saying MISS to SUBJECTIVE RESULTS
but they have never in 1 million years rated a HIT! Why is that?
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby G. ADAM » 17 Feb 2011, 03:41

Arouet you should check out http://stattrek.com/Tables/Binomial.aspx

Probability of success on a single trial = 0.25
Number of trials = 4

Number of successes = 1 P=0.68
Number of successes = 2 P=0.26
Number of successes = 3 P=0.05
Number of successes = 4 P=0.0039

So 2 right is about 4:1 odds. Let that be the pass mark.

The 4/4 odds are a bit out because the binomial has replacement, instead of permutation of answers used once.

But exact odds aren't critical as such low levels.

0,1 FAIL
2, 3, 4 PASS

Simply put. 1 out of 4 is the expected, so that's ZERO evidence.

An average of 2 out of 4 repeatable should get Randi's interest! Scoring double the expected!
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby Arouet » 17 Feb 2011, 05:26

G. ADAM wrote:If you assume paranormal doesn't exist then you are applying your own theories to the data too.

You are all saying "you get the occasional hit".


Sure, but we're saying more than that. We're saying that you will find hits where you want to find them, going about it the way we have for these past trials.

I showed you exactly how WATERY EYES and KLEENEX was good enough to spot from 50 words!


That depends on the 50 words, doesn't it? You can't just imagine what would have happened had we done it in a different manner.


ARE YOU LISTENING? That's 50:1 ODDS BROKEN ON A FORMAL PARANORMAL TEST (on one of the trials).

Even with two total misses that's a good pass for only 3 trials.

This is NOT my first psychic channel, I've done 20,000 over 10 years.

I wouldn't try to fit POND and FOUNTAIN if it was my very first time.

From your perspective I shouldn't have bothered rating the channels at all.

Skeptics have no problem FAILING and saying MISS to SUBJECTIVE RESULTS
but they have never in 1 million years rated a HIT! Why is that?


Sure we can say kleenex and watery eyes are a hit. Anyhow, we don't need to belabour this. We're going to have enough trouble figuring out your protocols.
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby Arouet » 17 Feb 2011, 05:28

G. ADAM wrote:Arouet you should check out http://stattrek.com/Tables/Binomial.aspx

Probability of success on a single trial = 0.25
Number of trials = 4

Number of successes = 1 P=0.68
Number of successes = 2 P=0.26
Number of successes = 3 P=0.05
Number of successes = 4 P=0.0039

So 2 right is about 4:1 odds. Let that be the pass mark.

The 4/4 odds are a bit out because the binomial has replacement, instead of permutation of answers used once.

But exact odds aren't critical as such low levels.

0,1 FAIL
2, 3, 4 PASS

Simply put. 1 out of 4 is the expected, so that's ZERO evidence.

An average of 2 out of 4 repeatable should get Randi's interest! Scoring double the expected!


Is there a stats guy lurking on this forum? We need someone who knows what they're talking about to help us here. I'm not proficient enough in stats to say how many should be a hit, over what sample.
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby G. ADAM » 17 Feb 2011, 08:20

oh very subtle.

let me spell it out.

1 chance in 4 of a HIT
4 goes

Expected result = 1 right.

OK so far?
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby Arouet » 17 Feb 2011, 11:44

G. ADAM wrote:oh very subtle.

let me spell it out.

1 chance in 4 of a HIT
4 goes

Expected result = 1 right.

OK so far?


Subtle? Not sure what you mean. If you mean that I would like independant verification of appropriate protocol then yes, I do.

Does each one have a 1/4 chance of being in the right order, if done by chance? We're looking at ordering 4 items in a particular order. I don't think it works that simply, does it?
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby G. ADAM » 17 Feb 2011, 14:39

you want an expert to verify what someone who doesn't know what he's talking about said?

Wouldn't such a result by default be non-confirming? (as opposed to non-conformist!)

I've made my suggestions re:odds and linked to the stats website where I did my calcs.

Nothing more I can say. Let me know when you've worked out the protocol you can use.
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby Arouet » 17 Feb 2011, 20:38

G. ADAM wrote:you want an expert to verify what someone who doesn't know what he's talking about said?

Wouldn't such a result by default be non-confirming? (as opposed to non-conformist!)

I've made my suggestions re:odds and linked to the stats website where I did my calcs.

Nothing more I can say. Let me know when you've worked out the protocol you can use.


You have not set out a valid protocol. or anything close. What you've set out is vague and incomplete.

How many trials are being run? If what would be considered statistically significant? What statistical method is being used? How are the results to be scored? What is the null hypothesis? How are the words to be picked (I suggested Random Word Generator). How many words are we going to generate? How are we going to pick what the 4 words are in each trial (I suggest we assign a number to each word, then use an RNG to select the 4 each time).

These are just what I can pull off the top of my head, and are by no means complete.

This is your show, my friend. How about this: you put something together that is complete and easy to understand, and I'll try and find someone to verify that it makes sense?
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby G. ADAM » 17 Feb 2011, 22:05

you're off your head!

There is ONE TEST and if I score above average we rinse, repeat.

If you want to put up $10,000 then we can make it a contract, until then I just want to prove psychic powers.

How do you select words??? what have you been doing?

Classic skeptic back-down, demand a water tight legal contract and when I deliver the requisite 2,000 words you say nobody can understand it, too complicated.

-----------------------------------------------

I have a better idea since you are not keen to embarress yourself with a positive result.

Just ask me 10 words in one post, another BATCh of subjective pretesting.

Can you do that? Need me to hold you hand for another 3 weeks and clarify?
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