Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

[The Professor]

So According to your stats (Which I believe are still to low sine the Saints were a 3 to 1 underdog)) I would FAIL 127 times for every time this happened?
So through some WEIRDNESS I was able to do it the very first time !!!!! ?????
And avoid the 127 times I would have missed ...

Is that what you are saying here?

The probability of this happening again would be Super Bowl 171 .... in 2137 ... Something like that?

Last edited by The Professor on 02 Mar 2010, 23:34, edited 1 time in total.

[ProfWag]

I looked at your magictalk.com thread. You had one guy guess the Saints. The next post was by you saying you had 5 others, but there's no public record that I could find. Care to share where you got your numbers.
Please note: I'm not saying at this point they didn't, I'm just saying there isn't a record of it on Magictalk.

[Nostradamus]

[Nostradamus]

[The Professor]

[Nostradamus]

Calling this is an "incredible experiment" is silly.
* It sounds like you didn't follow proper protocols.
* You calculated the wrong odds.
* You don't seem to understand the purpose of the odds

Giving interviews means nothing. It the experiment that counts.

Two important questions:
1. What was the statement of hits that was defined before the experiment was performed?
2. How did the subjects in the experiment announce their choices?

[The Professor]

[NinjaPuppy]

[The Professor]

[Nostradamus]

[Nostradamus]

[The Professor]

I guess it's time, in all due respect, to cut the legs out of your statistical argument.

All the rest is just smoke. i know it bothers you when the facts challenge what seems to be your total closed mindedness.

Are you ready ?

Here comes the Hammer (Of TRUTH)

[Nostradamus]

The reason you won't answer the question is that you have a failed protocol.

Your claim of truth is a hollow comment as all can see.

I know you don't understand the math. I know you don't understand science. I know your claims are rubbish.

It certainly sounds like you used a failed protocol leading to a 1/2 probability and not a 1/127 probability of separating out your experiment from random chance.

The hammer of truth says - you lose.

[Nostradamus]

[The Professor]

Professor Mark E. Glickman is THE foremost authority on magic and statistics.
He and colleague, Larry Lesser (University of Texas), published a paper called

Using Magic in the Teaching of Probability and Statistics.

I believe it was published in "Model Assisted Statistics and Applications" ....
Here is a link.
http://iospress.metapress.com/content/j ... lltext.pdf

Mark is an undisputed expert in the field.

His statement on the THOUGHT DIAL portion of the experiment was this .....

Hi David,

Here's the basic text you probably want:

The spread for the superbowl was 5 points in favor of the Colts. Football statisticians would convert this into an approximately probability of 1/3 that the Saints would win. The probability that Thought Dial would produce six independent predictions that were all correct (i.e., the Saints win) is therefore 1/3 raised to the power of 6, that is about 0.00137, or about 14 chances in 10000.

Hope that helps.

- Mark
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I know for a FACT that Mark is an expert in the field, however I'm not sure who you are or what qualifications, if any, you have?

So I'm going with the EXPERT on this one

ABOUT 14 CHANCES IN 10,000 !!!!
Just for the Thought Dial portion of the experiment!
When Dowsing is added (radioesp.com) it is even MORE AMAZING!!!!

Last edited by The Professor on 03 Mar 2010, 01:50, edited 1 time in total.