Discussions about Psychics and Psychic Phenomena, Extra Sensory Perception, Telepathy, Psi, Clairvoyancy, 6th Sense, Psychokinesis, etc.
16 Feb 2011, 21:04
Well in my mind I got 1 50:1 and 2 3:1s.
i.e. I could guess all 3 from 3 options.
With 50 random words, imagine a scoring quiz section like so:
CHANNEL : smoking a pipe until his eyes watered.
It's easy to see the word is KLEENEX in an OBJECTIVE test format.
The other 2 were hard to spot:
POND - CHANNEL=went to a lot of effort to illustrate *you pondering the word*
FOUNTAIN - CHANNEL=smell the fear of animals *wet yourself*
So.... ONTO THE OBJECTIVE PROTOCOL
Doesn't matter how many times I explain fountain of wee causing one to smell the fear of animals!
16 Feb 2011, 21:12
You're not a female are you Arouet?
THE PROTOCOL - QUICK VERSION - V 1.0
Tester thinks of 4 words and PMs the words to some regular SCEPCOP members
then posts like so
------ SAMPLE POST -----
page 123 line 22
page 100 line 10
page 44 line 1
page 200 line 20
---- END SAMPLE POST ----
G. ADAM replies with 4 channels
TESTER posts 4 words in random order
G. ADAM replies with 4 words in the order asked in STEP 1
Score - above averge = pass! Below average = fail (for this protocol)
16 Feb 2011, 21:24
G.Adam, you really need to take a step back and look at what you are doing here. Try and look at it objectively. After the fact, you can do all sorts of manipulations to try and square the circle - rhymes, puns, vague associations. When dealing with simple words it is not hard to take many phrases and grab SOMETHING from it that vaguely matches up with the word - or some aspect of the word.
You really need to read up on confirmation bias as well. Seriously, you need to read up on it and ask yourself whether it resembles what you are doing here. Try to look at yourself from the perspective of someone else. Play devil's advocate with yourself and argue for how if it was confirmation bias, would it look differently from what you are doing.
17 Feb 2011, 02:50
If you assume paranormal doesn't exist then you are applying your own theories to the data too.
You are all saying "you get the occasional hit".
I showed you exactly how WATERY EYES and KLEENEX was good enough to spot from 50 words!
ARE YOU LISTENING? That's 50:1 ODDS BROKEN ON A FORMAL PARANORMAL TEST (on one of the trials).
Even with two total misses that's a good pass for only 3 trials.
This is NOT my first psychic channel, I've done 20,000 over 10 years.
I wouldn't try to fit POND and FOUNTAIN if it was my very first time.
From your perspective I shouldn't have bothered rating the channels at all.
Skeptics have no problem FAILING and saying MISS to SUBJECTIVE RESULTS
but they have never in 1 million years rated a HIT! Why is that?
17 Feb 2011, 03:41
Arouet you should check out http://stattrek.com/Tables/Binomial.aspx
Probability of success on a single trial = 0.25
Number of trials = 4
Number of successes = 1 P=0.68
Number of successes = 2 P=0.26
Number of successes = 3 P=0.05
Number of successes = 4 P=0.0039
So 2 right is about 4:1 odds. Let that be the pass mark.
The 4/4 odds are a bit out because the binomial has replacement, instead of permutation of answers used once.
But exact odds aren't critical as such low levels.
2, 3, 4 PASS
Simply put. 1 out of 4 is the expected, so that's ZERO evidence.
An average of 2 out of 4 repeatable should get Randi's interest! Scoring double the expected!
17 Feb 2011, 08:20
oh very subtle.
let me spell it out.
1 chance in 4 of a HIT
Expected result = 1 right.
OK so far?
17 Feb 2011, 14:39
you want an expert to verify what someone who doesn't know what he's talking about said?
Wouldn't such a result by default be non-confirming? (as opposed to non-conformist!)
I've made my suggestions re:odds and linked to the stats website where I did my calcs.
Nothing more I can say. Let me know when you've worked out the protocol you can use.
17 Feb 2011, 22:05
you're off your head!
There is ONE TEST and if I score above average we rinse, repeat.
If you want to put up $10,000 then we can make it a contract, until then I just want to prove psychic powers.
How do you select words??? what have you been doing?
Classic skeptic back-down, demand a water tight legal contract and when I deliver the requisite 2,000 words you say nobody can understand it, too complicated.
I have a better idea since you are not keen to embarress yourself with a positive result.
Just ask me 10 words in one post, another BATCh of subjective pretesting.
Can you do that? Need me to hold you hand for another 3 weeks and clarify?
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