How about this proposal.
Just tele-ask me 2 words
One at a time, no options or anything I'll take 5 guesses from the 25 word list.
That's all I ask, if it works then I can get the ex-president of Aus Skeptics to do a demo test.
That's all I need is 2 trial runs!
Yes I know it proves nothing to you but it's proof of concept to me.
You post the numbers for word 1.
I post 5 guesses
You post the word
DAY 2
You post the numbers for word 2
I post 5 guesses
You post the word
G. Adam leaves, good riddance!
DEAL?
Statistics: Posted by G. ADAM — 24 Mar 2011, 16:57
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Correct the only way I can pass is to get the OCCASIONAL 3/3 and probably LOTS of 1/3 too.
There are several models to calculate the odds, but monte carlo simulation is quite accurate.
Say for 100:1 odds, 10 batches, you type in 10, 100 SIMULATE
Do that 10 times, write down the 10 high scores.
I got:
BATCHES = 10
SIMULATIONS | ODDS = 100
HIGH SCORES
17
20
18
18
19
18
17
17
18
17
so the middle value is 17 or18
So the pass mark for 10 batches would be 19 words right from 10 batches of 3.
That would prove supernatural with 1 in 100 chance of error!
Let's make 2/3 on average the pass mark for atleast 10 batches!
So you want to set up a 100:1 ODDS test?
Statistics: Posted by G. ADAM — 23 Mar 2011, 23:54
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The expected averate from 10 Batches is 10 words right out of 30.
The BEST score from 1000 simulations is 22 words right out of 30.
So the pass mark is 23 word guessed right from 10 batches to beat 1000:1 ODDS!
Get the example calcs?
Statistics: Posted by G. ADAM — 23 Mar 2011, 10:03
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We simulate 1,000,000 tests of 10 batches of 3 words ok? [example odds calculation]
Using a random guess ACB, BAC etc.
Then that will tell us what range the high score should be.
i.e. the 1 in million test score is the score to beat to beat Million to one odds.
We can calculate the odds using simulations.
And yes it does the IN ORDER test.
Statistics: Posted by G. ADAM — 23 Mar 2011, 09:55
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