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Is There Really Such a Thing as Premonition That Foretells

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Re: Is There Really Such a Thing as Premonition That Foretells

Postby Scepcop » 02 Sep 2009, 15:36

ProfWag wrote:
brett wrote:no prof NOT an hallucination - i am considering something much more solid and tangible possibly EVEN interactive ?? - like i have said just a Possibility to ponder :D as to your friend - pure coincidence ?? - but unlikely - what about if all things ARE in some ways interconnected - that we may be able in some cases to pick up on someone thinking of us ?? , sometimes i think us humans limit our thinking of what MAY be possible way too much - stymied by " experts " and dogma :?


Soooo if it is ""unlikely" that my friends contact with me was pure coincidence, then that tells me you think that is was "likely" something paranormal. Or, do I misunderstand?

You do know, don't you, that hallucinations are often times very, very real and interactive with those experiencing it. Sleep walking is also one of the more common interactive toys of the mind.


No one can tell you if your experience was a coincidence or synchronicity. Both are possible. We are merely telling you that synchronicity may be an explanation.

Carl Jung coined that term when he was writing about a dung beetle, and then a dung beetle appeared on his window ledge.

Synchronicity is plausible because at the quantum level, we are all one, we all came from the same peanut size object that started the Big Bang. We are all from the same star dust. At the quantum level, particles are everywhere at once, hence there is no locality.

FYI, I have had many experiences where I think of a friend and they contact me. I even prayed one time for a friend and he contacted me for no valid reason or explanation that he could think of. It was very weird.

As to hallucinations, no one can explain where they come from exactly and why the brain picks those images and what kind of "memory bank" they are emanating from.
“Devotion to the truth is the hallmark of morality; there is no greater, nobler, more heroic form of devotion than the act of a man who assumes the responsibility of thinking.” - Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
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Re: Is There Really Such a Thing as Premonition That Foretells

Postby Scepcop » 02 Sep 2009, 15:38

NinjaPuppy wrote:
ProfWag wrote:Very interesting article Scepcop and thanks for sharing it! I've always viewed premonition as something that could be explained as "educated guesses" and "confirmation bias." We take are experiences, some conscious and some unconscious, and learn from those to predict what may happen next. Our brains and the mysteries of memorie are an amazing thing. That may not always be the case though. There could really be something paranormal at work! (Though I doubt it... ;-) )
Wag


I had a memorable premonition once. I was 15 years old and on a family vacation in the Bahamas. During the entire vacation I kept getting these flashes of an airplane crash that were very upsetting. The closer the departure date came, the more upset I became but kept my fears to myself... until arriving at the airport for the return flight. I remember walking toward the boarding area and pitching a full blown hissy fit about NOT getting on THAT plane. Being old enough to know that the last thing that my parents would excuse was me creating a scene in public, I tried to explain my reason for my fears to them quietly. Naturally, I had NO choice in the matter and on the plane we went.

We were about half way home (over the ocean) and the plane was struck by lightning. BLAMMO! Stuff went flying all over the place as the plane plummeted straight down. No lights, just pure screaming and panic. The pilot was able to regain control in what seemed like FOREVER and announcements were made over the PA system. We were able to finish the flight without further incident but of course the mood was tense until that plane stopped moving on the runway.

Yes, I was wrong. The plane didn't crash but how on earth could I have ever known anything like this would happen?


That must have been very scary, thinking you were going to die, the worst nightmare. But I thought airliners were designed with protection from lightning. An airliner usually gets damaged by lightning only in the movies, not in real life?
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Re: Is There Really Such a Thing as Premonition That Foretells

Postby NinjaPuppy » 02 Sep 2009, 19:23

Scepcop wrote:That must have been very scary, thinking you were going to die, the worst nightmare. But I thought airliners were designed with protection from lightning. An airliner usually gets damaged by lightning only in the movies, not in real life?


Yes, I'm sure you are right about planes being designed with protection from lightning because I'm still here. :D Prior to the 'hit' the plane was experiencing some really nasty turbulance. When the lightning hit the plane, the lights went out in the cabin, there was a second or two of dead silence, (no engine noise) and then the plane immediately felt as if it had started to rapidly decend. People started to panic (verbally) as unsecured items started to fly around in the dark just as the plane felt as if it was taking a nose dive straight down. To this day, I still believe that if the pilot had not been so well trained or on the ball, that plane would be resting on the bottom of the ocean.

Since then, I have flown hundreds of times and have been on two other flights where lightning caused minor problems. One time lightning left minor 'pin holes' in the wing after hitting the plane. I've even had the opportunity to fly OVER a full blown hurricane. That was also quite an experience as the view of the storm clouds below was very unusual and I found myself in awe of the beauty of nature.
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Re: Is There Really Such a Thing as Premonition That Foretells

Postby quantumparanormal » 03 Sep 2009, 01:58

There's definitely evidence for precognition/premonitions, some of it empirically confirmed in lab settings.
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Re: Is There Really Such a Thing as Premonition That Foretells

Postby ProfWag » 03 Sep 2009, 02:32

quantumparanormal wrote:There's definitely evidence for precognition/premonitions, some of it empirically confirmed in lab settings.

Are we going to get another Dr. Radin experiment here?
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Re: Is There Really Such a Thing as Premonition That Foretells

Postby quantumparanormal » 03 Sep 2009, 03:52

ProfWag wrote:
quantumparanormal wrote:There's definitely evidence for precognition/premonitions, some of it empirically confirmed in lab settings.

Are we going to get another Dr. Radin experiment here?


There goes that lack of knowledge and sarcasm again (something I expect from a pseudo-skeptic). :D

Actually, Radin's done no experiments himself, no. He has, however, performed statistical research on the phenomenon.
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Re: Is There Really Such a Thing as Premonition That Foretells

Postby quantumparanormal » 03 Sep 2009, 04:09

ProfWag wrote:I don't mean to call you out Brett, but the 10% of our brain story is a myth. We use all 100% (well, at least MOST of us do...)
http://www.scientificamerican.com/artic ... t-of-brain
http://www.ccmr.cornell.edu/education/a ... ?quid=1260


"Ultimately, it's not that we use 10 percent of our brains, merely that we only understand about 10 percent of how it functions."


This is a contradiction: How can they claim we use 100% of our brains when they only understand 10% of how the brain functions? Ahh, perhaps part of their 10% understanding includes the knowledge that we use 100% of our brains? :o Oh, I know how they could be right: They are Nobel prize winners! That's evidence enough, correct? :lol:

In all seriousness, though, I'd like to see the published papers about this, not an article. Do you have any journal references regarding such research? Otherwise, it's all just unsubstantiated opinion. I form my conclusions based on empirical data obtained via valid scientific research (well, for the most part ;) ). Thanks.
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Re: Is There Really Such a Thing as Premonition That Foretells

Postby quantumparanormal » 03 Sep 2009, 04:10

Scepcop wrote:
ProfWag wrote:
brett wrote:no prof NOT an hallucination - i am considering something much more solid and tangible possibly EVEN interactive ?? - like i have said just a Possibility to ponder :D as to your friend - pure coincidence ?? - but unlikely - what about if all things ARE in some ways interconnected - that we may be able in some cases to pick up on someone thinking of us ?? , sometimes i think us humans limit our thinking of what MAY be possible way too much - stymied by " experts " and dogma :?


Soooo if it is ""unlikely" that my friends contact with me was pure coincidence, then that tells me you think that is was "likely" something paranormal. Or, do I misunderstand?

You do know, don't you, that hallucinations are often times very, very real and interactive with those experiencing it. Sleep walking is also one of the more common interactive toys of the mind.


No one can tell you if your experience was a coincidence or synchronicity. Both are possible. We are merely telling you that synchronicity may be an explanation.

Carl Jung coined that term when he was writing about a dung beetle, and then a dung beetle appeared on his window ledge.

Synchronicity is plausible because at the quantum level, we are all one, we all came from the same peanut size object that started the Big Bang. We are all from the same star dust. At the quantum level, particles are everywhere at once, hence there is no locality.

FYI, I have had many experiences where I think of a friend and they contact me. I even prayed one time for a friend and he contacted me for no valid reason or explanation that he could think of. It was very weird.

As to hallucinations, no one can explain where they come from exactly and why the brain picks those images and what kind of "memory bank" they are emanating from.


Determining if something is coincidence or not requires statistics. For example, we must know how likely it is for an outcome to occur. In order to determine that, we need to determine the sample space (a list of all possible outcomes), and that's very difficult to assess in cases like these. For example, if I think about my friend calling, then 5 minutes later, he does, is it coincidence or not? How likely is it that this outcome could've happened? To determine these things, we need to obtain the sample space (i.e., all possible outcomes for each event that could occur), we would need to determine the following: 1) How often do I think of my friend in a given day; 2) and how often does my friend call me in a given day?

Here's a possible, example sample space for the preceding:

A = How often do I think of my friend in a given day?
To determine the sample space, we need to find out the minimum and maximums. Let's say I think of my friend at the most 4 times a day, but no less than 1 time a day.

B = How often does my friend call me in a given day?
To determine the sample space, we need to find out the minimum and maximums. Let's say my friend calls me at a minimum every other day, so that's 0.5 times per day, (but since a friend can't give half a call, we need to consider it as every other day) and at the most 4 times per day.

Distribution space for a single event (i.e., 1 day):
A B
-- --
1 0 (this is zero because it's possible that my friend won't call 4 times out of all possible outcomes)
2 0
3 0
4 0
1 1
2 1
3 1
4 1
1 2
2 2
3 2
4 2
1 3
2 3
3 3
4 3
1 4
2 4
3 4
4 4

The total list of possible outcomes that can occur on a typical day, based on the preceding, is 20. For example, it's possible that on a given day, I could think of my friend 4 times and he calls me 4 times (the last on the list). So, if I was asking the question, "What are the chances of my friend calling me on a given day on which I thought of him twice?" the answer would be 5% (p = m/n, where m = number of outcomes for a single event, n = sample space, and p is the probability). Each one of the outcomes on that sample space list has a 5% chance of occurring in a day. If we only consider the question, "What's the chance that my friend will call me on a given day?" we exclude variable A and only consider variable B, and since variable B only has two possible outcomes (i.e., he calls every other day), the chance is 50% (m/n = 1/2 = 0.5).

Moving on, we need to answer the original question: What are the chances that I would think of my friend, then my friend calls me soon thereafter? We can't use the sample space used above because variable B is no longer necessary, as it's not part of the question. We now need variable C: How often does this occur? That's where we run into a problem. Empirical probability requires that we know about past events, but since we typically don't know the answer, unless one writes down on a log all of the times such a thing has occurred, it's impossible to determine with any great degree of accuracy. However, we can guess. Let's say that this happens every month, without fail. That would yield a probability of 3% (p = m/n = 1/30 = 0.0333).

My point in the preceding paragraph is that we're missing data, so we can't make an educated guess. Empirical probability demands that we have a complete sample space. Only then can we determine the probability of any subset of those events occurring.

However, using the dream precognition story, how often does a person have such an experience in his or her lifetime? How many times does it happen to the entire population, not just a sample? What are the chances it's coincidence and not psi related? We don't have the data to answer these questions, so to come to a conclusion either way is mere conjecture.
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Re: Is There Really Such a Thing as Premonition That Foretells

Postby ProfWag » 03 Sep 2009, 21:24

quantumparanormal wrote:Actually, Radin's done no experiments himself, no. He has, however, performed statistical research on the phenomenon.

Quantum, since you have his "Entangled Minds" book, would you mind looking on page 86 and telling me what his experiments are about and then again on page 188 where he lists his conclusions? This pseudo-skeptic is curious.
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Re: Is There Really Such a Thing as Premonition That Foretells

Postby ProfWag » 03 Sep 2009, 23:14

quantumparanormal wrote:
In all seriousness, though, I'd like to see the published papers about this, not an article. Do you have any journal references regarding such research? Otherwise, it's all just unsubstantiated opinion. I form my conclusions based on empirical data obtained via valid scientific research (well, for the most part ;) ). Thanks.

I sure can. You'll find it in the Journal of American Medical Association, right next to the article that discusses how listening to Mozart makes you smarter. C'mon Quantum, it's a MYTH. That means you won't find research articles on it. You CAN go to JAMA.com and find all sorts of articles on brain imaging that shows how neurons from all across the brain interact with one another or you can ask any neurosurgeon what happens if we injure part of the 90% of the brain we don't use (sarcasm intentional). But again, you won't find a journal article on the 10% brain myth, but you can search any neurological journal for reports on brain imaging and scanning.
BTW, did I miss where you posted your reference on your paranormal experiment that had a one quadrillion to one chance of it being chance?
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Re: Is There Really Such a Thing as Premonition That Foretells

Postby ProfWag » 03 Sep 2009, 23:33

quantumparanormal wrote:[
Determining if something is coincidence or not requires statistics. For example, we must know how likely it is for an outcome to occur. In order to determine that, we need to determine the sample space (a list of all possible outcomes), and that's very difficult to assess in cases like these. For example, if I think about my friend calling, then 5 minutes later, he does, is it coincidence or not? How likely is it that this outcome could've happened? To determine these things, we need to obtain the sample space (i.e., all possible outcomes for each event that could occur), we would need to determine the following: 1) How often do I think of my friend in a given day; 2) and how often does my friend call me in a given day?...

I don't disagree with you, but I would like to see if I can make it a little more simple to understand. Earlier, I gave an example that I saw a picture of a friend of mine I hadn't thought of in quite some time. The next morning I had a facebook "friend request" from him. I asked if that was coincidence or pecognition. Perhaps it could be figured statistically. Or, it could also be this. We were both huge basketball fans sharing the interest of the same team. A noteworthy news article concerning that team was shown on the national news. It triggered a memory in both of us. Not really procognition, but I guess it could be figured statistically, but I'll bet the statistical probability of that case would end up pretty high...
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Re: Is There Really Such a Thing as Premonition That Foretells

Postby quantumparanormal » 04 Sep 2009, 00:33

ProfWag wrote:
quantumparanormal wrote:Actually, Radin's done no experiments himself, no. He has, however, performed statistical research on the phenomenon.

Quantum, since you have his "Entangled Minds" book, would you mind looking on page 86 and telling me what his experiments are about and then again on page 188 where he lists his conclusions? This pseudo-skeptic is curious.
Thanks
Wag


Certainly.

Page 86 does not describe Radin's experiments. Page 86 describes the Pearce-Pratt distance telepathy trials conducted between Aug 1933 and Mar 1934. These trials produced a hit rate of 32%, with chance expectation being 20%. They later conducted more tightly controlled trials which ended up still producing significant statistical odds against chance. As a matter of fact, and here's just one example, answer to your "one quadrillion to one chance of it being chance" question, the results produced odds against chance of 10 to the 27th power to 1, or a billion billion billion to 1 (more than a quadrillion!). Even when accounting for experimenter bias, the file-drawer problem, lack of proper controls, methodological flaws, etc., the statistical odds against chance are still extremely high.

Page 188 does not contain his conclusions regarding the entire set of research listed in the book. That comes later on in the book. On that page is discussed Dr. Ryan Taft's experiment with intentional "healing" on cultured brain cells. The hypothesis was whether or not "healing" intention could cause cultured brain cells to grow faster than those not given such intention. This was a double-blind experiment utilizing controls. The results (page 189) showed "odds against chance for the increased growth trend in the treated cells was 1,100 to 1. By contrast, the control cells did not show a significant trend."

It's good to see you've admitted you're a pseudo-skeptic, although I've known all along. ;)
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Re: Is There Really Such a Thing as Premonition That Foretells

Postby quantumparanormal » 04 Sep 2009, 00:42

ProfWag wrote:I sure can. You'll find it in the Journal of American Medical Association, right next to the article that discusses how listening to Mozart makes you smarter.


Thank you. Can you please provide a specific title, reference number, or link to the paper? Thanks.

ProfWag wrote:C'mon Quantum, it's a MYTH. That means you won't find research articles on it.


Ahh, OK. Since you say it's a "myth," that's all the evidence I need. Forget the empirical data! :lol: (sarcasm intended, of course)

ProfWag wrote:But again, you won't find a journal article on the 10% brain myth, but you can search any neurological journal for reports on brain imaging and scanning.


I didn't ask for a journal paper on the supposed 10% "myth." Here's what I asked for:

QuantumParanormal wrote:This is a contradiction: How can they claim we use 100% of our brains when they only understand 10% of how the brain functions? Ahh, perhaps part of their 10% understanding includes the knowledge that we use 100% of our brains? :o Oh, I know how they could be right: They are Nobel prize winners! That's evidence enough, correct? :lol:

In all seriousness, though, I'd like to see the published papers about this, not an article. Do you have any journal references regarding such research? Otherwise, it's all just unsubstantiated opinion. I form my conclusions based on empirical data obtained via valid scientific research (well, for the most part ;) ). Thanks.


When I said "this," I meant the claim we use 100% of our brains. I don't deny it might be true, but I'd like to see the empirical evidence first. I agree that we most likely use more than 10% of our brains, but since it was stated we only understand 10% about how the brain works, it's a contradiction in terms. In other words, if you we only understand how 10% of the brain functions, how can we logically purport to understand how the other 90% works? But forget the latter. I'm interested in the we-use-100%-of-our-brains theory, specifically the empirical research done that demonstrates this is the case. Again, thanks for providing the info.

ProfWag wrote:BTW, did I miss where you posted your reference on your paranormal experiment that had a one quadrillion to one chance of it being chance?


See my previous post for the answer.
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Re: Is There Really Such a Thing as Premonition That Foretells

Postby quantumparanormal » 04 Sep 2009, 01:01

ProfWag wrote:Earlier, I gave an example that I saw a picture of a friend of mine I hadn't thought of in quite some time. The next morning I had a facebook "friend request" from him. I asked if that was coincidence or pecognition. Perhaps it could be figured statistically. ...


You could figure this out statistically if you knew all of the possible outcomes for each event. The problem is that you don't have this data.

We have to ask the following questions:

    How often do you see a picture of a friend of yours you haven't in quite some time? (in number of times per day)
    How often do your friends visit Facebook and request you as a friend? (in number of times per day)

Think of those two questions as constituting one event. Since we are determining the chances on a per-day scale, we need to know the per-day number/answer for each question.

Unless you can answer those questions, I can't provide you a probability number. In other words, and it's coming back to this again, we can neither refute nor make irrefutable the hypothesis/theory that your friend thought of you at around the same time you thought of him, and that process (i.e., those two events being linked in a causal way) prompted him to login to Facebook and request you as a friend. In other words, we have to conclude we simply don't have enough data to come to a logical conclusion.

However, your example is a very simple one because it only shows two variables. In many stories that indicate precognition, many more variables are involved. The Larry D. story mentioned previously is a good example of an experience with many variables involed. The more variables involved, the more unlikely it is for the event to occur.

Even if we did have a probability number, how could we demonstrate it was due to precognition and not chance? We need more controlled, blinded experiments to demonstrate precognition, but that doesn't mean precognition may not have been a factor. To presume it was or was not precognition is simply illogical.

However, if you can guess some numbers for those two questions, I can figure out the statistical probability for you.
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Re: Is There Really Such a Thing as Premonition That Foretells

Postby ProfWag » 04 Sep 2009, 01:45

quantumparanormal wrote:[
However, if you can guess some numbers for those two questions, I can figure out the statistical probability for you.

No, that won't be necessary. My post was simply to show that what appears to be, on the surface, possible precognition but in actuality, there are many more variables or variations to a story that could show that it was not precognition after all.
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