Discussions about Psychics and Psychic Phenomena, Extra Sensory Perception, Telepathy, Psi, Clairvoyancy, 6th Sense, Psychokinesis, etc.
Forer effect is more about general statements that can apply to anyone. What you're thinking of is confirmation bias - where we remember the hits and forget the misses.
Humans are very good at spotting patterns - but our accuracy is limited and so we will often overestimate or underestimate occurrences - we naturally see patterns, often when there is none.
As you rightly point out, it's very difficult to test in a real world setting - mainly because there is no practical way to ensure that you've noted each and every occurrence that should be included.
You can set up tests for it, but obviously those won't perfectly mirror the way these things happen in real life.
Interestingly, the world of online poker actually allows one to test this in real time. Many poker sites allow one to save all the hands played to their harddrive. Software can then run statistical tests on it. As one might imagine, poker is fertile ground for pattern spotting where people believe they see a certain pattern (ie: too many As coming out) - then when they go over the stats they will often see that their estimate was way off.
Folks I haven't had a chance to catch up with your posts. I am late for my own vacation. The would like to leave you with a thought. Here is the wiki on psychic.
IMO and training background the only valid definitions on this page are as follows:
A psychic (/ˈsaɪkɪk/; from the Greek ψυχικός psychikos—"of the mind, mental") is a person who claims to have an ability to perceive information hidden from the normal senses through extrasensory perception (ESP), or who is said by others to have such abilities.
This alludes to mental processes and the distinction between inner and physical senses. There is a mirror and one lives in the imagination and the other through the physicality of the body. All sense sources feed what we call the mind.
The word psychic is derived from the Greek word psychikos ("of the mind" or "mental") and refers in part to the human mind or psyche (ex. "psychic turmoil"). The Greek word also means "soul".
Soul may come to mean the nature of stimuli which arise and influence the mind and our own being. Some other words that are used to describe the nature of a spiritual being: essence, character, various psychic energies (rage, apathy, concern, fear, etc, etc, etc). One can close your eyes in a room with people who come and go and in a proper sensitized reading space notice the change of energy in the room based on the occupants. Yup. We will get to that in a bit. For now I would like to suggest that psychic represents a wide palette of mental phenomenon including dreams, schizophrenia, spirit guides, etc. As this thread progresses I will show the mental phenomenon associated with the mystic and spiritual language.
Have a nice week. I am off for nature, water, trees, and one truly remarkable UFO conference which has produced more direct evidence of cosmic phenomenon than any lecture, video, or book ever could. Let's see what happens this year. Eisenhower's great granddaughter is one of the speakers this year. Always a wide range of material to parse.
Are you going to the one in North Carolina? If so, one of the speakers is Dr. Richard Haines who worked for NASA and the Apollo program. How 'bout asking him his thoughts on the moon hoax theories?!?
Also, there appears to be a discussion on the Belgium Triangle UFOs. I've seen them. Twice. So I would be interested to hear the thoughts on that as well.
Please do start a new thread for this topic. I'd love to hear your experience and thoughts on the subject.
and even scarier, you couldn't avoid it either. how does this messaging backwards in time work?
I had a psychic reading at the beginning of the year, from a friend of a friend who does this regularly. They told me about people in my life they know nothing about, then tried to predict the next 12 months. I wrote down the things they predicted. A lot of them have already come true by mid-year. They weren't things that you could count on happening to anybody, they were pretty specific.
My other psychic friend could predict things happening shortrange in time, but could also do remote viewing on people -- they could tell me what I had been doing from halfway 'round the world.
well, given the remote viewing thing from halfway 'round the world, what would you conclude? it's not 'so easy', it's just what happened. you couldn't fake it.
I've often described what I think would probably be pretty convincing to me. An experiment (whether Remote viewing or OBE) where you've got one person in one room. In another room is a computer that will display a random image on the screen. We're talking about a simple image - like a chair , a ball, a tree - a circle, something simple and not easily open to multiple interpretations. The subject is allowed to get ready in whatever way they choose, following whatever ritual or routine they wish and when they signal an image is loaded on the screen and they must simply go and identify it remotely.
No complicated statistics. Just do they see a simple image or object or not. (if the subject objects to it being an image on a screen I'm sure a suitable protocol could be developed - the idea is that its a simple object, easily identified.
The closest I've heard of it done was Tart's experiment with Miss Z in the 70s - an impressive result never duplicated.
Here's a fairly informative article about the Belgian triangles. http://www.science-frontiers.com/sf072/sf072g15.htm
If you do a quick Google, you can find all sorts of debunking up to and including someone who came forward to claim he was the hoaxer. That's why I really, really want to hear ProfWag's story.
Let's try it then.
What is this? Randi's Million Dollar Challenge??? You show me your protocol and I'll show you mine.
We'll set up a day when we both have some free time and you can look at crap and I'll try to guess what you're looking at. Since we don't have a set up for some random pics to come up on a computer, you can maybe find some pictures of single items (like a pic of a book without the bookshelf, a desk, text, etc.) Or perhaps use a simple deck of cards or something like that.
It's a classified program Ninja, and I wouldn't want to compromise the Aurora SR-91 program's secret, would we? Oh, wait a minute...
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