Discussions about Psychics and Psychic Phenomena, Extra Sensory Perception, Telepathy, Psi, Clairvoyancy, 6th Sense, Psychokinesis, etc.
23 Mar 2011, 23:54
it might be interesting for post analysis and we could define a new metric if something like that happens, which I'm not expecting as the paranormal bias should be evenly distributed for each word guess.
Correct the only way I can pass is to get the OCCASIONAL 3/3 and probably LOTS of 1/3 too.
There are several models to calculate the odds, but monte carlo simulation is quite accurate.
Say for 100:1 odds, 10 batches, you type in 10, 100 SIMULATE
Do that 10 times, write down the 10 high scores.
I got:
BATCHES = 10
SIMULATIONS | ODDS = 100
HIGH SCORES
17
20
18
18
19
18
17
17
18
17
so the middle value is 17 or18
So the pass mark for 10 batches would be 19 words right from 10 batches of 3.
That would prove supernatural with 1 in 100 chance of error!
Let's make 2/3 on average the pass mark for atleast 10 batches!
So you want to set up a 100:1 ODDS test?
24 Mar 2011, 16:57
OK, so I take it Arouet doesn't like the idea that if you simulate 1,000,000 psychic tests with random guesses
then if there's a single highest scorer then he roughly broke 1,000,000:1 odds!
How about this proposal.
Just tele-ask me 2 words
One at a time, no options or anything I'll take 5 guesses from the 25 word list.
That's all I ask, if it works then I can get the ex-president of Aus Skeptics to do a demo test.
That's all I need is 2 trial runs!
Yes I know it proves nothing to you but it's proof of concept to me.
You post the numbers for word 1.
I post 5 guesses
You post the word
DAY 2
You post the numbers for word 2
I post 5 guesses
You post the word
G. Adam leaves, good riddance!
DEAL?
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