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I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Discussions about Psychics and Psychic Phenomena, Extra Sensory Perception, Telepathy, Psi, Clairvoyancy, 6th Sense, Psychokinesis, etc.

Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby Arouet » 02 Mar 2011, 14:44

G. ADAM wrote:
Arouet wrote:[And I've said: 1) I'm not interested in following the clock to do this. I have enough stress in my life without worrying about whether I'm posting at the right time.



I thought you said if I posted WAIT X HOURS you would?


That was confusing, I thought you were saying we had to complete the trials before that time. What I want you to do is tell me when to stop, then post again when to start. If you really think the temporal thing is necessary at all. You have a sample of exactly 1 as your basis for this, in a trial where you weren't getting hits when that wasn't a problem anyway. You need a much bigger base to determine whether that is an issue when you can really analyse the data once you have a large sample. My feeling is that its simply premature.

Why do want metaphysical explanations of why giving the answer on the same day the question is asked is valid parapsychological theory?


I don't need a metaphysical explanation, i want a rational one. You had one trial where you thought that the midnight thing caused the guess to match with the following clue. That could have just been coincidence. Unless you see this popping up again and again, its too early to worry about that and it makes it a real pain in the ass given the fact that we live in different time zones that narrow our window already for getting a bunch of trials in. If you are serious about this, we need to do lots of trials. I'm game, (as long as we can agree on the scoring) but I also want it to be relatively easy, and not annoying. What this will do will serve to just slow us to a crawl, and we'll never get anywhere.
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby G. ADAM » 02 Mar 2011, 15:18

Why are you blackmailing me?

Just ask me the words! Skip the stats. You can do the stats in 2056AD

I have no objective to prove anything to SCEPCOP forum members. I just want to beat the expected average.

5 tests is 20 words.

Expected average TOTAL COMBINED HITS for such a test is 5 right.

do you understand that?

REALLY UNDERSTAND IT?

It doesn't matter if you get 0 0 0 4 1. THAT'S EXPECTED
It doesn't matter if you get 1 1 1 1 1. THAT'S EXPECTED
2 2 2 2 2 is a bit more interesting, that's 454:1

I'VE TOLD YOU IN BOLD LETTERS 10 TIMES ALREADY THAT I UNDERSTAND 2/4 OR 3.4:1 ODDS IS NOT SIGNIFICANT.
STOP TWISTING THE DEBATE WITH STUPID N0NSENSE

Last time you posted "I UNDERSTAND" I said ONE (1) word matches and you went on about ALL words matching.

I want someone to follow my protocol, not design it!
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby G. ADAM » 02 Mar 2011, 15:22

LOOK AROUET!

you keep repeating the same 5 objections 10 times running each!

I DON'T NEEDS SIGNIFICANT DATA TO TEST IF ITS SIGNIFICANT :oops:
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby G. ADAM » 02 Mar 2011, 15:35

LOOK WE'VE ALREADY COVERED THIS:

1/ 2/4 on a single batch is not significant
2/ Posting the options the day after the channel may or may not help
3/ POINT 1 has nothing to do with the accuracy of the binomial odds calculator
4/ If POINT 2 does help, it's got to be based on GMT midnight

I only need 2 trials where the options are posted on the next day GMT.

You took 10 days working around that.

I don't need this *fuddlesticks*
Either do as I say or I'll *fuddlesticks* off for good.

10 years of this *fuddlesticks* mate.



*SELF CENSORED WHILE NINJA IS AWAY
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby NinjaPuppy » 02 Mar 2011, 20:51

*SELF CENSORED WHILE NINJA IS AWAY

I thank you for that G.Adam. I've been back since Monday but I've been silent as per your request.
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby G. ADAM » 02 Mar 2011, 21:29

I'll suggest a revision to the Basic Word Guessing Protocol, which limits us to 1 word / day.

TESTER
Get random word and numbers.
PM to 2 umpires
Post 2 numbers

GUESSER
Post channel from the 2 numbers

TESTER
Posts that he got the channel
Wait

GUESSER
Posts request for 4 word options. (shortly after midnight GMT)

TESTER
Posts 4 options

GUESSER
Posts guess

TESTER
Scores
Starts on next word.

------------------------

I only need about 3 words to see if it's an improvement or not,
the TESTER setting his forum time to GMT might help, but I'm not rationalizing why so.
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby G. ADAM » 02 Mar 2011, 21:53

Once I've posted my guess it should be safe for anyone to post comments. :D :x :) :P


GUESSER
Posts guess

DISCUSSION ALLOWED

TESTER
Scores
Starts on next word.

QUIET WHILE TEST IS IN PROGRESS :? :cry:
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby Arouet » 02 Mar 2011, 22:28

G. ADAM wrote:Why are you blackmailing me?

Just ask me the words! Skip the stats. You can do the stats in 2056AD


Why would I skip the stats? This is all about the stats. Why am I wasting my time with this if its not about the stats?

I have no objective to prove anything to SCEPCOP forum members. I just want to beat the expected average.


The way you've gone about figuring out if you beat expectation is just wrong. I've explained why.

5 tests is 20 words.

Expected average TOTAL COMBINED HITS for such a test is 5 right.

do you understand that?

REALLY UNDERSTAND IT?

It doesn't matter if you get 0 0 0 4 1. THAT'S EXPECTED
It doesn't matter if you get 1 1 1 1 1. THAT'S EXPECTED
2 2 2 2 2 is a bit more interesting, that's 454:1


You are applying the wrong statistical analysis for that type of test. For the most recent protocol you are right. But not for that other protocol. I've explained why. I'll try one more time. It is expected that you will guess 0/4 37.5%, 1/4 one third of the time, and 2/4 25% of the time. Do you understand that? REALLY UNDERSTAND IT?

I'VE TOLD YOU IN BOLD LETTERS 10 TIMES ALREADY THAT I UNDERSTAND 2/4 OR 3.4:1 ODDS IS NOT SIGNIFICANT.
STOP TWISTING THE DEBATE WITH STUPID N0NSENSE


First of all: 2/4 represents 6/24 which is 1/4 which is 3:1 - where do you get 3.4:1. And I'm not twisting the debate with this: this is the whole thing. Your way is nonsense. If you don't believe me, go to a stats forum, or a parapsychology forum like skeptiko, and present your version. See what they say. If I'm wrong I'll admit it

Last time you posted "I UNDERSTAND" I said ONE (1) word matches and you went on about ALL words matching.

I want someone to follow my protocol, not design it!


I'm not just going to follow your protocol if its a waste of time. You need to make it worth my while: which is to see if something interesting is going on. You're not a nice enough guy for me to want to help you out of the goodness of my heart.
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby caniswalensis » 03 Mar 2011, 00:45

Good Gravy!

Please, somebody pinch this turd off!

..don't forget to flush.
"It is proper for you to doubt ... do not go upon report ... do not go upon tradition ... do not go upon hear-say." ~ Buddha
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby G. ADAM » 03 Mar 2011, 07:51

Arouet wrote:
G. ADAM wrote:Why are you blackmailing me?

Just ask me the words! Skip the stats. You can do the stats in 2056AD


Why would I skip the stats? This is all about the stats. Why am I wasting my time with this if its not about the stats?



You haven't specified what ODDS you want to break.

Why are you insistent on +-0% accuracy?


I have no objective to prove anything to SCEPCOP forum members. I just want to beat the expected average.


The way you've gone about figuring out if you beat expectation is just wrong. I've explained why.

5 tests is 20 words.

Expected average TOTAL COMBINED HITS for such a test is 5 right.

do you understand that?

REALLY UNDERSTAND IT?

It doesn't matter if you get 0 0 0 4 1. THAT'S EXPECTED
It doesn't matter if you get 1 1 1 1 1. THAT'S EXPECTED
2 2 2 2 2 is a bit more interesting, that's 454:1


You are applying the wrong statistical analysis for that type of test. For the most recent protocol you are right. But not for that other protocol. I've explained why. I'll try one more time. It is expected that you will guess 0/4 37.5%, 1/4 one third of the time, and 2/4 25% of the time. Do you understand that? REALLY UNDERSTAND IT?



I understand you comprehend very little.

To break odds, you examine the cumulative probability. i.e. P(hits>=2)

P(h=2) is meaningless. That's my MINIMUM *pass* score for a batch.



I'VE TOLD YOU IN BOLD LETTERS 10 TIMES ALREADY THAT I UNDERSTAND 2/4 OR 3.4:1 ODDS IS NOT SIGNIFICANT.
STOP TWISTING THE DEBATE WITH STUPID N0NSENSE


First of all: 2/4 represents 6/24 which is 1/4 which is 3:1 - where do you get 3.4:1. And I'm not twisting the debate with this: this is the whole thing. Your way is nonsense. If you don't believe me, go to a stats forum, or a parapsychology forum like skeptiko, and present your version. See what they say. If I'm wrong I'll admit it

Last time you posted "I UNDERSTAND" I said ONE (1) word matches and you went on about ALL words matching.

I want someone to follow my protocol, not design it!


I'm not just going to follow your protocol if its a waste of time. You need to make it worth my while: which is to see if something interesting is going on. You're not a nice enough guy for me to want to help you out of the goodness of my heart.



Well you can EITHER wait for my cue to post the options for the next few trials, one word per day.

or you can stop insisting we calculate unwieldy stats on the batch method.

replacement or not is a minor, minor, minor shortcoming, especiallly when we don't have any benchmark odds to defeat.

If you think 50 right out of 100 words (25 batches of 4) is insignificant because "you can't up up the hits" - then :lol:

We are NOT trying to prove paranormal to some set odds.

We are trying to PRESENT A CASE WITH DATA to write a paranormal claim for the $100,000AU or $1,000,000US competition.

Or get media attention!
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby G. ADAM » 03 Mar 2011, 10:39

Arouet, can you post 4 random words please?

Simple justification: we can begin the test at least 1 day after, and use those options.
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby Arouet » 03 Mar 2011, 17:44

G. Adam, I'm not interested in a protocol where we're doing one test a day that we have to split up between pre-midnight GMT and post midnight GMT and we do one trial a day. I really get the sense that you're just jerking me around. You're certainly not going to be applying for the MDC to do a challenge where they must test you for a year or two because you can only do one trial a day!

You come up with something more reasonable, maybe I'll play along for awhile longer,
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby G. ADAM » 03 Mar 2011, 18:45

No this is really quick.

TEST RUN

You post 4 random words.

Wait a day.

You select a word and post a line number
I post my channel AND GUESS TOGETHER

If that works, then here is the clever part.

You post 10 batches of 4 random words.

We wait a day.

We can trial 1 word selection from each batch as fast as you want, only 1 post each per trial, no limitations.
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby Arouet » 03 Mar 2011, 23:09

Ok, we'll try that.

Four random words: (still will be nouns)

1. Gin
2. Frustration
3. Governor
4. Pin
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby G. ADAM » 04 Mar 2011, 02:37

Great! While we kill 24 hours, I just finished programming a website that does the batch protocol!

Only difference is the 4 words are entered up front. I got 2/4 first go, but going to do a proper set tomorrow.

I actually think doing the 4 teleasks running one after the other puts them in the right order by forcing the options to connect directly with the clue. No random options left.

But 1 guess at a time is worth checking out too, as it's simpler to demo.


Image


http://paranormaltest.com


I added a STOP button to better randomize the line numbers incase a Random Seed helps.
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