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I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Discussions about Psychics and Psychic Phenomena, Extra Sensory Perception, Telepathy, Psi, Clairvoyancy, 6th Sense, Psychokinesis, etc.

Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby Arouet » 25 Feb 2011, 19:15

I think I see why you think there is more going on than there is here. Even when you miss, you correct yourself after the reveal and in your mind it becomes a hit.
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby Arouet » 25 Feb 2011, 19:20

Also, I don't get your scoring. Why do you simply call 2/4 a pass? You will get 2/4 approximately 25% of the time. To say that it means anything you need to show that you get 2/4 significantly more often than 25% of the time. And it must be over a significant sample. It is meaningless on it's own.
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby G. ADAM » 25 Feb 2011, 20:44

Arouet wrote:I think I see why you think there is more going on than there is here. Even when you miss, you correct yourself after the reveal and in your mind it becomes a hit.



Nope! I could easily make a poll and 99% of people would see the matches here.

BONE <----> GRAVE(LY.) THAT WOULD HAVE
TAPE <----> HOLD(ING) UP A SMALL (DUTCH) FLAG

Are you seriously telling me the phrase GRAVE, THAT WOULD HAVE
is not an obvious clue to the word BONE?

and HOLD UP A SMALL FLAG is not an obvious clue to TAPE?

the only mental ailment here is DENIAL
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby G. ADAM » 25 Feb 2011, 20:51

Arouet wrote:Also, I don't get your scoring. Why do you simply call 2/4 a pass? You will get 2/4 approximately 25% of the time. To say that it means anything you need to show that you get 2/4 significantly more often than 25% of the time. And it must be over a significant sample. It is meaningless on it's own.



Well think of a different word if it rumples your undies!

PROTOCOL 1.2

BATCH 1 - 1/4 - ENIGMA
BATCH 2 - 2/3 - APENDECITIS

Your problem is you don't read the protocol where I set 2/4, being clearly above expected, as a hit for that batch.
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby Arouet » 25 Feb 2011, 22:20

I told you I would take some time to review the stat portion, I finally did so yesterday (before you were a jerk once again). I'm on my blackberry so will have to keep this short. A 2/4 guess will occur 6/24 or 25% of the time by chance. For something interesting to be going on here you need to exceed that to a statistical degree of significance. I'm no stats expert but would you agree with that?
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby really? » 25 Feb 2011, 23:03

G.Adam wrote:You might be a helpful and methodical skeptic but you're still a skeptic.

Meaning you are a closed minded.
Arouet, I think you are wasting your time because this fellow is certain he has the power of telepathy and won't consider anything that contradicts his self image.
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby G. ADAM » 25 Feb 2011, 23:41

really? wrote:
G.Adam wrote:You might be a helpful and methodical skeptic but you're still a skeptic.

Meaning you are a closed minded.
Arouet, I think you are wasting your time because this fellow is certain he has the power of telepathy and won't consider anything that contradicts his self image.



you're a skeptic and your handle is Really? :lol:

What STOPPING POWER! The enemy of illusion is here. Stop dreaming NOW!

---------------

Arouet it's 100 times easier and close enough for our purposes to just add up the total hits.

So combining batches 1 & 2 I'm at 3HITS/8WORDS.

Just plug this into the binomial calculator but P=0.25. Use 1/X on the final row to get ODDS.


Image


Let's just try and get a few batches done by end of the week, 5 days, then add up the hits see what odds we got.

Won't be 1000:1 but we can work out the hit ratio.
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby Arouet » 26 Feb 2011, 00:00

You're a real piece of work, G. Adam. You act like an ass to me, insult me (I assume the skeptic line was an attempt at an insult) and you still want my help?

I don't know that you can just add up all the hits and misses given a protocol like this. Given that we're dealing with ordering words. Maybe you can, but I'd need someone knowlegeable to confirm. I don't have the expertise and I'm not going to take your word for it.

Besides, you haven't even acknowledged that just guessing 2/4 is meaningless on its own. Have you ever consulted a stats forum to help you put together a propper protocol?
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby G. ADAM » 26 Feb 2011, 00:19

huh? I assumed by your stats post you were taking it on the chin and going on.

I meant proverbial skeptic, I tried to justify myself and point out your good qualities and get blasted for that too!

You know if you let me handle the protocol and you just tele-asked the questions I'd be $1,000,000 richer by now!
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby derrida » 26 Feb 2011, 00:45

so.. according to you Adam
you got 10 hits?
really??
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby G. ADAM » 26 Feb 2011, 01:00

derrida wrote:so.. according to you Adam
you got 10 hits?
really??


I would have by now if you didn't come stumbling into the thread mid way through batch 3 going.... "hey what's the score what's going on man???"
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby Arouet » 26 Feb 2011, 03:37

Still on my BB so can't go into detail, but combiniong the hits here seems to give you better odds than doing it individually - so combining won't work. G Adam do you agree?
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby derrida » 26 Feb 2011, 04:31

G. ADAM wrote:
derrida wrote:so.. according to you Adam
you got 10 hits?
really??


I would have by now if you didn't come stumbling into the thread mid way through batch 3 going.... "hey what's the score what's going on man???"



REALLY?!?!?!... are you blaming me!??!
oh wow..

dude !! i am supporting you
i want this to be true
it would be so awesome to be part of this IF it was true
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby derrida » 26 Feb 2011, 04:34

Arouet wrote:Still on my BB so can't go into detail,


Translation : I am that guy that on restaurants never looksat the waitress while he is placing his order cause he is too busy foursquaring his location.



(by the way.. i get to tell the jokes cause i am a bb user too.. )
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Re: I can do telepathy EASY! - NSA

Postby G. ADAM » 26 Feb 2011, 08:08

Arouet wrote:Still on my BB so can't go into detail, but combiniong the hits here seems to give you better odds than doing it individually - so combining won't work. G Adam do you agree?


It should be roughly correct if the hit ratio is 25% - 50%, which is what we're both expecting.

If the hit ratio is 50%-99% then it will skew the ODDS higher, but if that's the case the paranormal bias is so high the amount of trials is fairly small and exponential growth kicks in on the ODDS.

Considering
A/ there is no contract, so the data can be sought before the stats
B/ there is no set ODDS to demonstrate, 100:1? 1000:1? 10000:1?
C/ we don't know the hit ratio or what the minimum should be
D/ the exact stats are unwieldy
E/ I don't even know if the protocol gets the channels in the right order yet
F/ Using an 'ordering' stats, I don't know whether to make 4/4 or 2/4 the pass mark
G/ If you use 2/4 as the pass mark, you will need 40 batches not 10
H/ It's a simple case of adding a few batches to overcompensate for the odds

It's like getting out your protractor to divy up the apple pie!
Just add up the hits!
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