View Active Topics          Latest 100 Topics          View Your Posts          Switch to Mobile

Prove to me ESP exists

Discussions about Psychics and Psychic Phenomena, Extra Sensory Perception, Telepathy, Psi, Clairvoyancy, 6th Sense, Psychokinesis, etc.

Re: Prove to me ESP exists

Postby craig weiler » 04 Sep 2011, 22:11

Profwag,

I hate to keep pointing this out to skeptics because I don't want to be insulting, but this is terribly one sided skepticism to the point that it is not really skepticism at all.

When faced with a mountain of positive evidence on the one hand and a 20 year old report on the other, that used Ray Hyman, a die hard skeptic and member of CSICOP, a pseudo-skeptical organization, to report on the psychic evidence and therefore taint it with heavy bias, you are going with the 20 year old heavily biased report.

If you are not skeptical of the skeptics and do not hold them to the same standards, you have greatly diminished the value of your opinions on this subject. You can't claim that skeptics aren't biased because there is all kinds of evidence that they are.
A ship in harbor is safe, but that's not what ships are for.
User avatar
craig weiler
 
Posts: 386
Joined: 03 Sep 2011, 12:08
Location: San Francisco Peninsula






Re: Prove to me ESP exists

Postby Craig Browning » 04 Sep 2011, 23:20

BurdenofProof wrote:It doesn't.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burden_of_proofis on you all.


Hmmm. . . I'm smelling SPAM :?
User avatar
Craig Browning
 
Posts: 1526
Joined: 13 Feb 2010, 05:20
Location: Northampton, MA

Re: Prove to me ESP exists

Postby NinjaPuppy » 05 Sep 2011, 02:55

Craig Browning wrote:
BurdenofProof wrote:It doesn't.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burden_of_proofis on you all.


Hmmm. . . I'm smelling SPAM :?

All I smell is a Wikipedia link.
User avatar
NinjaPuppy
 
Posts: 4002
Joined: 28 Jul 2009, 20:44

Re: Prove to me ESP exists

Postby ProfWag » 05 Sep 2011, 19:42

craig weiler wrote:Profwag,

I hate to keep pointing this out to skeptics because I don't want to be insulting, but this is terribly one sided skepticism to the point that it is not really skepticism at all.

When faced with a mountain of positive evidence on the one hand and a 20 year old report on the other, that used Ray Hyman, a die hard skeptic and member of CSICOP, a pseudo-skeptical organization, to report on the psychic evidence and therefore taint it with heavy bias, you are going with the 20 year old heavily biased report.

If you are not skeptical of the skeptics and do not hold them to the same standards, you have greatly diminished the value of your opinions on this subject. You can't claim that skeptics aren't biased because there is all kinds of evidence that they are.

Fair enough that that is a 20-year old article, but nothing has been presented to the Academy during that time that has made them retract or update their stance on the subject. But I disagree that it was a heavily biased report.
As for the mountain of positive evidence you state, I can agree that there is some evidence, but even that evidence is questionable and the positive results are statisticaly small--so small that significance of it is even questionable. You commented in your blog referenced in another thread that the debate will probably go on long after you're gone. That alone is enough to tell me that even if there is something to psi, there is not enough to it to have any use in science as we know it today and certainly not enough for me to have confidence in people being able to read minds, talk to dead people, move objects with their mind, see the future, or see objects in another location. I just haven't been presented with anything that could make me convinced that psychic abilities are anything more than educated guesses. I read your blog post on scientific evidence, but nothing that would change my mind about wishing people would stop putting their faith and money into psychics, astrologers, etc. My apologies to you psychics and astrologers out there who honestly believe they are helping people and to those psychics and astrologers out there who know you are fraudulent...shame on you...
User avatar
ProfWag
 
Posts: 3843
Joined: 05 Aug 2009, 03:54

Re: Prove to me ESP exists

Postby craig weiler » 06 Sep 2011, 00:56

Uh, whatever.
A ship in harbor is safe, but that's not what ships are for.
User avatar
craig weiler
 
Posts: 386
Joined: 03 Sep 2011, 12:08
Location: San Francisco Peninsula

Re: Prove to me ESP exists

Postby _Ice_Ages_14_Aces_ » 06 Sep 2011, 07:39

ProfWag wrote:I just haven't been presented with anything that could make me convinced that psychic abilities are anything more than educated guesses.


Here is something that will scratch your head.

There is a 1974-2004 Ganzfeld meta-analysis which was published in Psychological Bulletin.

The meta-analysis contains a total of 88 independent experiments.

The total number of trials are 3,145 (32% hit rate)

The total number of hits are 1,008 (MCE=786.25)

If you do a proper statistical analysis, you will get Z=9.113 P<0.00000000000000001

The probability, at least as extreme, of getting a result like this in which the null-hypothesis is true is less than a trillion to one. So if you want to get a result like this in which the null-hypothesis (Pure guessing) is true, then you would have to run it more than a trillion times to get a result like this by chance. That's much more unlikely than winning the lottery.

So, would you conclude these hits are nothing but educated guesses? If I were you, I would say, "Absolutely not!"
User avatar
_Ice_Ages_14_Aces_
 
Posts: 69
Joined: 04 Sep 2011, 06:38

Re: Prove to me ESP exists

Postby Craig Browning » 07 Sep 2011, 02:23

I so long for the day when "educated" people stop trying to sound intelligent and learn to speak in simple "human" terms :roll:

32% hit rate on most anything, but especially a study on Psychic type ability, STINKS! I have Cold Reading students that hold to a 65-75% hit rate, some of the more advanced student carry a solid 80-85% ratio. Based on that alone I'd say something is "off" and I haven't a clue what all this particular experimentation is about, I just saw these numbers and associated Geekenese talk while passing through. . . :twisted:
User avatar
Craig Browning
 
Posts: 1526
Joined: 13 Feb 2010, 05:20
Location: Northampton, MA

Re: Prove to me ESP exists

Postby Arouet » 07 Sep 2011, 03:37

Remember 32% doesn't mean 32% attributed to psi. It's 7% attributed to psi. And could be less than that because one rarely gets exactly 25% on a relatively small set of trials.
User avatar
Arouet
 
Posts: 2544
Joined: 07 Aug 2010, 03:07

Re: Prove to me ESP exists

Postby craig weiler » 07 Sep 2011, 03:38

:lol: Ice Age was delivering the statistical equivalent of a smackdown followed by a body slam to profwag, with a chair over the head thrown in for good measure.

Basically, the accumulation of evidence for the ganzfeld is almost overwhelming and all the statistical nitpicking is nonsense.
A ship in harbor is safe, but that's not what ships are for.
User avatar
craig weiler
 
Posts: 386
Joined: 03 Sep 2011, 12:08
Location: San Francisco Peninsula

Re: Prove to me ESP exists

Postby Arouet » 07 Sep 2011, 03:41

I guess that's the answer then...glad we resolved it. Nothing to see here.
User avatar
Arouet
 
Posts: 2544
Joined: 07 Aug 2010, 03:07

Previous

Return to Psychic Phenomena / ESP / Telepathy

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot] and 1 guest