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Human predictor accuracy tops out at 90%

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Human predictor accuracy tops out at 90%

Postby Nostradamus » 02 Apr 2010, 12:07

From http://news.cnet.com/8301-13577_3-20001338-36.html?part=rss&subj=news&tag=2547-1_3-0-20
There is evidence that there is a limit to how well it is possible to describe someone.

The Twitter Predictor's accuracy is about 82 percent, according to Dixon. "It actually started off at 89 percent, but some people were claiming the questions were too easy, so in the middle of it we turned up the difficulty of the questions," he said. "We knew that would lower the success rate, but we thought that would make it more impressive." He also said that it's nearly impossible to nudge that accuracy much further than 90 percent in the first place. "People in our studies are actually only consistent with themselves about 90 percent of the time," Dixon explained, citing the accuracy ceiling that the developers trying to win the Netflix Prize competition eventually encountered. "The highest you could possibly give was around 92, because of the same thing. If you ask people to rate movies one day and the next day, they're only consistent around 90 percent of the time."
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Re: Human predictor accuracy tops out at 90%

Postby Craig Browning » 02 Apr 2010, 20:50

Yep! This is one of my favorite "tests" when it comes to the skeptic screaming about how inaccurate psychics can be. In the real world, witnessing something that happens within a matter of seconds like this, can't be accurately described by most anyone and you will get different in-put from each person witnessing the very same event... it goes back to my movie analogy.
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Re: Human predictor accuracy tops out at 90%

Postby Nostradamus » 02 Apr 2010, 21:02

I thought this was relevant to the discussion of predictions since it shows that there is an upper limit to how when a person can be described. I think it also might be related to the accuracy of eyewitness reports.
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Re: Human predictor accuracy tops out at 90%

Postby NucleicAcid » 04 Apr 2010, 07:54

See, I have a very limited twitter account, and everything it asked about was technology and gadgets.

I think it's much more like a cold reader. It only asks questions that it already knows (or thinks it knows) the answer to! :lol:
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