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Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby The Professor » 02 Mar 2010, 23:16

So According to your stats (Which I believe are still to low sine the Saints were a 3 to 1 underdog)) I would FAIL 127 times for every time this happened?
So through some WEIRDNESS I was able to do it the very first time !!!!! ?????
And avoid the 127 times I would have missed ...

Is that what you are saying here?

The probability of this happening again would be Super Bowl 171 .... in 2137 ... Something like that?
Last edited by The Professor on 02 Mar 2010, 23:34, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby ProfWag » 02 Mar 2010, 23:33

I looked at your magictalk.com thread. You had one guy guess the Saints. The next post was by you saying you had 5 others, but there's no public record that I could find. Care to share where you got your numbers.
Please note: I'm not saying at this point they didn't, I'm just saying there isn't a record of it on Magictalk.
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby Nostradamus » 02 Mar 2010, 23:47

So According to you stats (Which I believe are still to low) I would FAIL 127 times for every time this happened?
So through some WEIRDNESS I was able to do it the very first time !!!!! ?????
And avoid the 127 times I would have missed ...

Is that what you are saying here?


Of course not. Clearly, as your calculations show and this comment shows you do not understand odds.
That's fine many people do not.
Your claim of a hit and a miss was not defined. That is clear. Nowhere do you define what you would consider to be a hit or miss on this test. Notice that the JREF always does as do ALL scientific research that is published. That definition is made up front before any experimentation is done.

For example, here you give us an example of 7 correct answers. Would you have called it a hit if only 6 had been correct? Would you have called it a hit if 5 had been correct? See what I mean. You define success up front. You did not. Nor did you mention that in your write up. That is such an essential part of scientific work that your omission tells us that you probably were unaware of this requirement. That's fine. Now you know.

After you decide what is a hit or miss you find out that the standard for publishing in most scientific journals is meeting the 95% confidence interval. This means that you need to show your results are likely to be correct. Numerically it means that the result you get is unlikely to be false positive. You do your work to a statistical level of significance so that only 5% of the time a false positive occurs. Most studies are done much better than that, but initial studies are done with a balance of cost (effort, time, money) and being certain of the results.

Let's say that in your case you decide that all people must be correct to be a hit. So 1 wrong answer is a miss. This means you have to have at least 6 people in the group. Why? Well if everyone is guessing, then they have a 50-50 chance of being correct. The probability of 6 people guessing and being correct is (1/2)^6 = 1/32 < 1/20 = .05 or 5%.

Now here is the problem. For all 6 people to be correct in this case all 6 must give the same answer. So everyone picks the Colts or everyone picks the Saints. If the choices made by the people were not independently made, then the formula (1/2)^6 does not apply. More likely the probability is 1/2.

So how did people announce their choice?
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby Nostradamus » 02 Mar 2010, 23:48

Which I believe are still to low sine the Saints were a 3 to 1 underdog


That has nothing to do with anything as I've already explained.
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby The Professor » 02 Mar 2010, 23:54

ProfWag wrote:I looked at your magictalk.com thread. You had one guy guess the Saints. The next post was by you saying you had 5 others, but there's no public record that I could find. Care to share where you got your numbers.
Please note: I'm not saying at this point they didn't, I'm just saying there isn't a record of it on Magictalk.

There were four other volunteers and I myself took the Thought Dial test.
Mysteries magazine is doing an article on this incredible experiment.
The Magic Cafe also published this in their predictions of the Super Bowl !!!!!
The Thought Dial Six.(Or something like that)
The volunteers were from a cross section of individuals.
A Manager
An Audio Engineer
A Sports Writer
A TNA Wrestling employee
And Myself
Several of these have already given interviews which will be played on The Dark Truth Radio show.
radioesp.com
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby Nostradamus » 03 Mar 2010, 00:06

Calling this is an "incredible experiment" is silly.
* It sounds like you didn't follow proper protocols.
* You calculated the wrong odds.
* You don't seem to understand the purpose of the odds

Giving interviews means nothing. It the experiment that counts.

Two important questions:
1. What was the statement of hits that was defined before the experiment was performed?
2. How did the subjects in the experiment announce their choices?
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby The Professor » 03 Mar 2010, 00:18

Nostradamus wrote:
Which I believe are still to low sine the Saints were a 3 to 1 underdog


That has nothing to do with anything as I've already explained.


So if a Donkey Races a Quarter Horse the odds are only 50/50 Right??? Since there are only two of them. :)

ROTFLMAO

They'd love you in Vegas dude :)
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby NinjaPuppy » 03 Mar 2010, 00:21

The Professor wrote:So if a Donkey Races a Quarter Horse the odds are only 50/50 Right??? Since there are only two of them. :)

OOOOOH, SNAP!
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby The Professor » 03 Mar 2010, 00:21

Nostradamus wrote:Calling this is an "incredible experiment" is silly.
* It sounds like you didn't follow proper protocols.
* You calculated the wrong odds.
* You don't seem to understand the purpose of the odds

Giving interviews means nothing. It the experiment that counts.

Two important questions:
1. What was the statement of hits that was defined before the experiment was performed?
2. How did the subjects in the experiment announce their choices?


DUDE ..
I set the protocol. And it was 100% accurate!
Your assessment is that of a Donkey versus a Racehorse LMAO
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby Nostradamus » 03 Mar 2010, 00:51

So if a Donkey Races a Quarter Horse the odds are only 50/50 Right??? Since there are only two of them. :)
ROTFLMAO
They'd love you in Vegas dude

Thanks for the infantile comments. I'm sure you have plenty more you're willing to share.

Your example show you have no understanding of science or experiments, which anyone could see from the start.

Let's take your asinine example and work with it. Since you haven't defined the race or the hit/miss criteria I will. The race is a 100 mile race across varied terrain. The winner is the first to get from point A to point B. The people choosing the winner use a flip of a coin. Their claim is that the spirit of Diurius will come at their beckoning to cause the coins to land in such a way that they predict the winner. These six people have written on cards what they want Diurius to do. Each person flips the coin and asks Diurius for help. If a head comes up the head card is turned over. If tails the tail card is turned over. This demonstrates that the choices are independently random. All 6 people choose the donkey. The donkey wins and by hours. It's a stunning victory. The odds makers paid off a huge pile of cash.

Had this happened by chance then the odds that this were simply due to random events is (1/2)^6 or < 5% chance of a false positive.
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby Nostradamus » 03 Mar 2010, 00:55

DUDE ..
I set the protocol. And it was 100% accurate!
Your assessment is that of a Donkey versus a Racehorse LMAO


The reason you laugh is to cover up your ineptitude and lack of a junior high science education. I'm not laughing I am trying to assist you. So take the time to learn something you should have learned in 7th grade. You are past 7th grade right? If not I can certainly attempt to dumb this down.

You set a protocol which you are refusing to reveal. Why is that? You probably realize it is seriously flawed.

So stop acting like a dope and let's find out the answers:

Two important questions:
1. What was the statement of hits that was defined before the experiment was performed?
2. How did the subjects in the experiment announce their choices?
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby The Professor » 03 Mar 2010, 01:07

I guess it's time, in all due respect, to cut the legs out of your statistical argument.

All the rest is just smoke. i know it bothers you when the facts challenge what seems to be your total closed mindedness.

Are you ready ?

Here comes the Hammer (Of TRUTH) :)
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby Nostradamus » 03 Mar 2010, 01:21

The reason you won't answer the question is that you have a failed protocol.

Your claim of truth is a hollow comment as all can see.

I know you don't understand the math. I know you don't understand science. I know your claims are rubbish.

It certainly sounds like you used a failed protocol leading to a 1/2 probability and not a 1/127 probability of separating out your experiment from random chance.

The hammer of truth says - you lose.
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby Nostradamus » 03 Mar 2010, 01:24

Here is the claim from the OP:
I believe this would be enough to beat the JREF MDC.
Even the Thought Dial Prediction Alone was 729 to 1 !!!!!
Too bad the JREF refuses to test me. Guess this explains why. They'd be a million dollars poorer.


It certainly is abundantly clear that this profoundly uneducated guess is wrong.
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby The Professor » 03 Mar 2010, 01:42

Professor Mark E. Glickman is THE foremost authority on magic and statistics.
He and colleague, Larry Lesser (University of Texas), published a paper called

Using Magic in the Teaching of Probability and Statistics.

I believe it was published in "Model Assisted Statistics and Applications" ....
Here is a link.
http://iospress.metapress.com/content/j ... lltext.pdf

Mark is an undisputed expert in the field.

His statement on the THOUGHT DIAL portion of the experiment was this .....

Hi David,

Here's the basic text you probably want:

The spread for the superbowl was 5 points in favor of the Colts. Football statisticians would convert this into an approximately probability of 1/3 that the Saints would win. The probability that Thought Dial would produce six independent predictions that were all correct (i.e., the Saints win) is therefore 1/3 raised to the power of 6, that is about 0.00137, or about 14 chances in 10000.

Hope that helps.

- Mark
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I know for a FACT that Mark is an expert in the field, however I'm not sure who you are or what qualifications, if any, you have?

So I'm going with the EXPERT on this one :)

ABOUT 14 CHANCES IN 10,000 !!!!
Just for the Thought Dial portion of the experiment!
When Dowsing is added (radioesp.com) it is even MORE AMAZING!!!!
Last edited by The Professor on 03 Mar 2010, 01:50, edited 1 time in total.
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