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Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby Azrael » 27 Mar 2010, 01:09

Nostradamus wrote:What's interesting here Azrael is that the Professor refuses to answer simple questions that have been posted. This should be easy to clear up, but don't hold your breath waiting for an answer.


Well he is currently posting on magic talk forum,usual nonsense that Randi lied to him or about him. Ive lost track of the times he has been asked to prove that statement,never mind the hundreds of other nonsense statements. Seems you got him beat Nostradamus.

Give Randi credit he sure gets 'em talking!! :D
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby ciscop » 27 Mar 2010, 05:25

the professor hasnt come here in a while
the beauty of TiVo is that he gets to see Barney 24/7
which keeps him busy
For every person who reads this valuable book there are hundreds of naïve souls who would prefer to have their spines tingled by a sensational but worthless potboiler by some hack journalist of the paranormal. You who now read these sentences join a small but wiser minority. Martin Gaardner (Psychology of the Psychic)
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby Azrael » 30 Mar 2010, 02:24

Over at Magic Talk forum (only place he gets to post stuff unchallenged generally as its made up of all his buddies)Dave is crowing about Mysteries magazine apaprently running an article about the Thoght dial test. They seem to have overlooked th eobvious,and the fact hundreds predict lottery numbers(a much harder task) every week! But then I guess rational thinking isn't high on their agenda. :P
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby Azrael » 16 Apr 2010, 00:04

I emailed the genuiine professor of maths and statistics at Boston Mark Glickman(who The Professor claimed to have gotten such incredible odds) and asked him the obvious question: WHat are the odds of 5 people(as thats what Dave started his claim with)independently picking The COlts to win superbowl.His reply thus:

If you're asking what is the probability that 5 people picking independently would correctly pick the Colts as the winner, then it's
(2/3)*(2/3)*(2/3)*(2/3)*(2/3) which is about 13.2%, assuming the probability the Colts would win is 2/3 (which it was roughly for the Superbowl). You can replace the 2/3 with 1/2 if you prefer to view the probability of a win as equal for both teams.


Just to clairfy:
You can replace the 2/3 with 1/2 if you prefer to view the probability of a win as equal for both teams


Hmmm 1/2 isnt that 50/50? :D
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby Nostradamus » 16 Apr 2010, 03:45

I notice that in Glickman's statement that the odds computed are for independent probabilities. I though that the test involved everyone openly announcing their decisions over a period of time. That's not independent. The multiplication formula only applies if one probability does not affect another probability. That's what independent means.
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby Azrael » 16 Apr 2010, 05:28

Nostradamus wrote:I notice that in Glickman's statement that the odds computed are for independent probabilities. I though that the test involved everyone openly announcing their decisions over a period of time. That's not independent. The multiplication formula only applies if one probability does not affect another probability. That's what independent means.


Well I dont understand maths perhaps you can enlighten me?

Edit: Seeing as only one person openely stated their decision(on magic talk at least).
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby Nostradamus » 16 Apr 2010, 08:18

A good example of how the odds change is shown by the old tv show Let's Make a Deal. In that show there were 3 doors. You got to pick one of the doors. Then the host would try to trick you by showing you a miss. After showing a miss you'd be asked if you wanted to switch doors or stay with what you have.

When you first picked a door the chances were 1 in 3. There was 1 winner door and 2 loser doors. That's pretty easy to understand. But after you made a choice the host shows you a loser. Now the odds have changed because you learned something.

Let's split out the outcomes in two 2 cases:
a) There is 1 chance in 3 of picking the winner
b) There is 2 chances in 3 of picking a loser

If you don't switch doors you have 1 chance in 3 of picking the winner. But what if you switched doors.
a) If you had picked the winner then you definitely switch to a loser. So 1 chance in 3 you pick a loser
b) Case b is the 2 chances in 3 that you picked a loser. The host shows you the other loser. So if you switch doors you have to pick the winner. So 2 chances in 3 that you pick the winner.

The best strategy is to always switch doors. You double your chance of a win. You benefit by the host showing you a loser. Notice that your odds don't change to 1/2 but rather to 2/3.

The problem here is there is an assumption that people will bet based on the odds. Do you know anyone that follows the odds when betting? It's an emotional trip. Being a machine is not what counts in gambling. It's the emotional thrill. So I doubt that the probability of someone picking one team over the other is based on rational odds.

But the second person knows what the first person chose. The third knows what the first 2 chose. The statement is that everything was done in the open. When a group gets together they become a group by agreeing with each other. So the probability of choosing one team over the other changes as new members are added to the team.

The way to prevent this is to have everyone make a decision and send in that decision. No one including the person receiving the decisions should look at the decisions until everyone has made a decision. There should be no open discussions about the decisions until the decisions are handed in. Then each of the decision is made independently.

Another example of actions affecting later actions is to guess card suits. If the cards are shown after the guess is made, the person guessing could begin to count and figure out by the end of the deck which suits are likely to show up. The might known that all of the clubs are gone, and only a few heart are left so the deck is rich in spades and diamonds. But if they are not shown the deck they can't take advantage of this extra information.
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby ciscop » 17 Apr 2010, 01:43

Nostradamus wrote:A good example of how the odds change is shown by the old tv show Let's Make a Deal. In that show there were 3 doors. You got to pick one of the doors. Then the host would try to trick you by showing you a miss. After showing a miss you'd be asked if you wanted to switch doors or stay with what you have.

When you first picked a door the chances were 1 in 3. There was 1 winner door and 2 loser doors. That's pretty easy to understand. But after you made a choice the host shows you a loser. Now the odds have changed because you learned something.

Let's split out the outcomes in two 2 cases:
a) There is 1 chance in 3 of picking the winner
b) There is 2 chances in 3 of picking a loser

If you don't switch doors you have 1 chance in 3 of picking the winner. But what if you switched doors.
a) If you had picked the winner then you definitely switch to a loser. So 1 chance in 3 you pick a loser
b) Case b is the 2 chances in 3 that you picked a loser. The host shows you the other loser. So if you switch doors you have to pick the winner. So 2 chances in 3 that you pick the winner.

The best strategy is to always switch doors. You double your chance of a win. You benefit by the host showing you a loser. Notice that your odds don't change to 1/2 but rather to 2/3.

The problem here is there is an assumption that people will bet based on the odds. Do you know anyone that follows the odds when betting? It's an emotional trip. Being a machine is not what counts in gambling. It's the emotional thrill. So I doubt that the probability of someone picking one team over the other is based on rational odds.

But the second person knows what the first person chose. The third knows what the first 2 chose. The statement is that everything was done in the open. When a group gets together they become a group by agreeing with each other. So the probability of choosing one team over the other changes as new members are added to the team.

The way to prevent this is to have everyone make a decision and send in that decision. No one including the person receiving the decisions should look at the decisions until everyone has made a decision. There should be no open discussions about the decisions until the decisions are handed in. Then each of the decision is made independently.

Another example of actions affecting later actions is to guess card suits. If the cards are shown after the guess is made, the person guessing could begin to count and figure out by the end of the deck which suits are likely to show up. The might known that all of the clubs are gone, and only a few heart are left so the deck is rich in spades and diamonds. But if they are not shown the deck they can't take advantage of this extra information.


i kind of remember this from an old highschool philosophy book
but you explain it better
For every person who reads this valuable book there are hundreds of naïve souls who would prefer to have their spines tingled by a sensational but worthless potboiler by some hack journalist of the paranormal. You who now read these sentences join a small but wiser minority. Martin Gaardner (Psychology of the Psychic)
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby The Professor » 21 Apr 2010, 04:22

Several Math Instructors have all agreed that the odds and probability in this experiment are 100% correct!
The article will be out soon. Too bad the Pseudo-Skeptics can't dispute the real facts.
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby ciscop » 21 Apr 2010, 07:47

The Professor wrote:Several Math Instructors have all agreed that the odds and probability in this experiment are 100% correct!
The article will be out soon. Too bad the Pseudo-Skeptics can't dispute the real facts.


not unless
you are calling yourself a math professor dave?

name the math professors
you cant..
:lol:

busted red handed AGAIN
For every person who reads this valuable book there are hundreds of naïve souls who would prefer to have their spines tingled by a sensational but worthless potboiler by some hack journalist of the paranormal. You who now read these sentences join a small but wiser minority. Martin Gaardner (Psychology of the Psychic)
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby The Professor » 21 Apr 2010, 09:34

Funny little man ... First you said there was no Professor and I've proven you wrong. Now you want more mud on your face? HA Ha Ha !!!!

Anyone with any math background will agree it's 1/3 to the 7th power.

Sorry you didn't learn that in Jr, High.

Ask Martin Gardner.
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby ciscop » 21 Apr 2010, 09:42

dave
you came here AFTER the superbowl
like all your predictions
you always talk loud AFTER the fact never before

busted again, drunk
For every person who reads this valuable book there are hundreds of naïve souls who would prefer to have their spines tingled by a sensational but worthless potboiler by some hack journalist of the paranormal. You who now read these sentences join a small but wiser minority. Martin Gaardner (Psychology of the Psychic)
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby The Professor » 21 Apr 2010, 09:47

Please say that this wasn't published before the Super Bowl ... If that's what you are saying then again you've proven to be a big LIAR!

Please say it was stooged and you'll have to prove THEY are all lying (Which you can't), but we really know YOU are the one lying.

It was all published before the game and everyone knows that. To say it isn't proves you are THE LIAR :)

Even Martin Gardner knows that !!!!! :)
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby Nostradamus » 21 Apr 2010, 11:24

You lied about the odds professor. End of story.
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby ProfWag » 22 Apr 2010, 02:28

The Professor wrote:Please say that this wasn't published before the Super Bowl ... If that's what you are saying then again you've proven to be a big LIAR!

Please say it was stooged and you'll have to prove THEY are all lying (Which you can't), but we really know YOU are the one lying.

It was all published before the game and everyone knows that. To say it isn't proves you are THE LIAR :)

Even Martin Gardner knows that !!!!! :)

I am NOT a math professor. However, I would like to ask this: If you had asked 6 people from New Orleans who would win the Super Bowl, what would the odds have been that all 6 would have said "New Orleans?" Likewise, if you asked 6 people from Indiana who would win the Super Bowl, what would the odds have been that all 6 would have said "New Orleans?" The problem as I see it with stating these odds, is that with predicting the winner of a sporting event, factors such as sentimental favorites, player injuries, and location of surveys all play a part in the outcome and cannot be determined via odds. As such, I believe that using odds in this particular thought dial process is inappropriate as they could not be determined.
Now, if you want to start TODAY to run your thought dial and select 6 people who could come up with a Super Bowl winner, and they all select the eventual winner, then you may be on to something. However, I am quite confident that this test will not be conducted because, well, insert your own reason here:___________________
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