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Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

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Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby The Professor » 28 Feb 2010, 13:22

Seven people using The Thought Dial and Dowsing in predicting the Super Bowl have beaten the odds of 2,187 to 1.

http://magictalk.com/forum/index.php?topic=1103.0

I believe this would be enough to beat the JREF MDC.

Even the Thought Dial Prediction Alone was 729 to 1 !!!!!

Too bad the JREF refuses to test me. Guess this explains why. They'd be a million dollars poorer. :)

You can hear more on The Dark Truth Radio Show

radioesp.com
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby Nostradamus » 28 Feb 2010, 23:01

I took a quick look at the post and I don't get it - that's just me. I was not able to check the odds out because I don't git it.

So where does 729 come in, that 9 cubed. I saw no sets of 9. I did see sets of 11.
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby The Professor » 28 Feb 2010, 23:32

Six people volunteered to use the Thought Dial as a divination tool.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HrQS6WYC80w
They were asked to pick the winner of the Super Bowl and announce their decision BEFORE the game.
Amazingly enough, ALL the participants selected The Saints to win even though they were a 3 to 1 underdog in the betting (A five point spread)
So six people out of six volunteers picked the Saints BEFORE the game. No one picked the Colts.
This would be 1/3rd to the 6th power ... roughly 14 out or 10,000 tries (Probability)
I'm not a math major but I had this part figured by a College Professor.
That would be like 3x3x3x3x3x3 equals 729.

After this a dowser (The seventh person) was asked to join in,but use her dowsing techniques in addition. She also Amazingly picked The Saints.
729 time 3 is now 2,187 ... So the probability of this happening is 2,187 to 1.
This occurred on The Dark Truth Radio, recorded BEFORE the Super Bowl began.
radioesp.com

Everyone who asked was allowed to participate. No one ever picked the Colts. Only seven people total were asked to use these Paranormal Methods.
Everyone agreed 100% that the Saints would win!!! SUPERNATURAL SUPER BOWL !!!!
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby Nostradamus » 01 Mar 2010, 02:54

So where does the 1/3 come from? It should be 1/2 shouldn't it?
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby Nostradamus » 01 Mar 2010, 03:13

I sat through the videos and it contains absolutely nothing. Lots of words and no substance. Can you provide a concise description of the steps taken in this study? It might be something like this:

1. A group of 6 people were chosen at random from a set of 100 people that volunteered.
2. These 6 people were asked to choose a number from set A (and you would define the set)
3. The following transformation was used to convert the numbers to a choice. The 6 people and the people involved in the study knew or did not know the method of transformation.
4. Their choices were made n days before the event.
5. The result was ...
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby The Professor » 01 Mar 2010, 13:31

Sure Can !!!

1) An open call for Volunteers was made.
2) Six people volunteered (Myself included) ... No one was turned away.
3) I followed the directions provided in the Thought Dial book with each of the volunteers. We were focusing on the winner of the Super Bowl (Picking Winners page 83 to 90.
4) Amazingly all six of us picked The Saints (Beside the fact that they were 3 to 1 underdogs and several of the participants believed the Colts would win) to win according to the Thought Dial. (Posted on The Magic Cafe and Magic Talk)
5) Dowser, Ginnette Lucas, was asked to join in on The Dark Truth Radio Show ( radioesp.com ). She used her dowsing techniques to determine that The Saints would win.
6) At this point we had seven out of seven people using Paranormal Divination methods all agreeing that The Saints would win the Super Bowl.
Not one person had picked the Colts.
7) We all waited to see how it would all come out.

This all happened and was documented BEFORE the game started.

The Dark Truth Radio Show host Jim Callahan has put up $20,000.00 to guarantee the authenticity of the experiment.
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby Nostradamus » 01 Mar 2010, 20:41

I'll take a better look at this later, but your odds are completely wrong. They are not (1/3)^6.

Each person had a choice of 2 things. These choices are independent so there were only 64 different ways that the 6 volunteers could have made their choices. So your chances were 1 in 64 of this outcome.
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby The Professor » 01 Mar 2010, 21:53

Nostradamus wrote:I'll take a better look at this later, but your odds are completely wrong. They are not (1/3)^6.

Each person had a choice of 2 things. These choices are independent so there were only 64 different ways that the 6 volunteers could have made their choices. So your chances were 1 in 64 of this outcome.


At first I also thought along those lines but that isn't the case.
I was corrected by an instructor at a respected college.
He put the Thought Dial portion of the experiment at about 14 out of 10,000. (probability)
A five point spread puts the odds at 3 to 1.

I will also get other experts to confirm this.
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby Nostradamus » 02 Mar 2010, 00:08

You are mixing apples and oranges. You are not calculating the same odds of 6 people making a correct prediction.

The 1/3 odds are not the odds of the event happening. They are a prediction - a human artifice used in gambling.

The choice was Saints win or Saints lose. Each choice was 50%.

The point spread is payoff. What you calculated is the payoff, not the probability of the event happening and especially not the probability used to discern this from a chance event.
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby Nostradamus » 02 Mar 2010, 00:16

Professor when you ask someone to calculate your odds make sure that they answer the following question:

"What are the odds this was not a lucky guess?"
- or -
"What are the odds that our result was correct?"

Payoff odds makes every lottery and trifecta eclipse anything you've claimed here.
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby ciscop » 02 Mar 2010, 00:59

The Professor wrote:Seven people using

Too bad the JREF refuses to test me. Guess this explains why. They'd be a million dollars poorer. :)

radioesp.com


no.
you never state what was your paranormal ability
and after bad mouthing them in many forums you were booted

please dont think you can out smart us
you are a failed magician
and thats it

now go and do some balloon sculpting like your friend jimbo
For every person who reads this valuable book there are hundreds of naïve souls who would prefer to have their spines tingled by a sensational but worthless potboiler by some hack journalist of the paranormal. You who now read these sentences join a small but wiser minority. Martin Gaardner (Psychology of the Psychic)
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby Nostradamus » 02 Mar 2010, 01:36

Hey ciscop - good to see you again.

I think what we are seeing here is called publication bias. You publish your successes and not your failures. All I am interested in pointing out to the Professor right now is that he is calculating odds that are not consistent with the odds published by JREF.
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby The Professor » 02 Mar 2010, 02:42

I was not aware that the JREF published odds on this Thought Dial and Dowsing experiment. Where did they do that?

I know that during their last Fiasco MDC they had a girl try to name three cards in a card trick.
The odds were about 1,000 to 1 that she would get all three. She didn't get any.

In this experiment it was 100% !!!!!! All seven people were 100% correct! Seven out of seven! (2,187 to 1)

All done in the open and published BEFORE the Super Bowl !!!!!!
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby ciscop » 02 Mar 2010, 03:28

i also bet on the saints and won
does that make me a psychic?

your numbers are incorrect professor
7 people guessed right a event with a 50% - 50% chance
i bet i can find over 200 people in a pub in new orleans that guessed the same

Dave
do some balloon sculpting like jimbo
jim knows now he cant do much better than that
raymond wasnt his ticket to stardom after all, balloon animals are.
For every person who reads this valuable book there are hundreds of naïve souls who would prefer to have their spines tingled by a sensational but worthless potboiler by some hack journalist of the paranormal. You who now read these sentences join a small but wiser minority. Martin Gaardner (Psychology of the Psychic)
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Re: Thought Dial Dowsing Successful against 2,187 to 1 Odds !!!!

Postby Nostradamus » 02 Mar 2010, 03:32

I was not aware that the JREF published odds on this Thought Dial and Dowsing experiment. Where did they do that?

Sorry I was not clear enough for you. JREF methods of calculating the odds of an event differ from the method you used. JREF does odds calculations consistent with scientific methods to discern the probability that an event is not a false positive.

So far you have shown one instance in which the odds were 1/64. This barely makes the 95% confidence interval, the standard for scientific public. It certainly is not the distorted odds you posted.

Again you need to learn math. If you want to include the dowser then you had a 1/128 of posting a false positive. Whoopee do!
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